Replies to post #423867 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Chromosome]

You have an impressive memory Kiwi…yes was at ZSPH through the acquisition and two CRL’s followed by shuttering the San Mateo site. AZ paid 2.7 b for us; Lokelma was the superior drug for hyperkalemia due to rapid lowering of K+…they were projected to do a billion at peak and are at 400 now so many years after because of the delay in launch. Goes to show, all things being equal, market order entry goes 50- 60% share for 1st to market, 20 to 30% for second and 10 to 20% for third.
Back to AMRN, I have seen again and again that ultimately the science will prevail. Still long 92K shares.

[JRoon71]

Kiwi, first off, I just picked kidney disease at random, as an example. I don't know much about it, to be honest.

As far as buyout estimates, I am clearly working with a lot of unknowns. I have no idea what revenues will look like eventually. But I look at what has happened in the U.S., Canada, Spain, etc. to help predict what would be "easily achievable". I also don't know what hurdle rate a BP would apply to Amarin revenues. Generally, with less clarity and more risk, a higher hurdle rate is used. With more certainty and less risk, a lower rate can be applied. This is why Denner would never sell today - there's just too many unknowns sitting out there for Amarin. I think once they can get Italy and France on board, get greater traction in UK and China, and possibly achieve more certainty with U.S. revenues (not sure what that would look like), then a BP has a whole lot more to work with.

Oh, and with regards to "Enterprise Value", you would include A/P in the debt number (short term debt). But EV is really just a calculation. It doesn't represent a BO estimate.