Lol, I haven't "twisted the statements of Lightwave's competitors". I think you're feeling pressure. Just remember, when we get all the gains from lwlg "pretty soon" you just put that money into your other gem, Niocorp.
Jeunke, the Shorts can argue all they want that LWLG won't be in volume production until 2026/2027, honestly Lebby has told investors by way of his Timeline and by way of his SAM/SOM targets that LWG's Customer Acceptance and Ramp would come in 2024 at 800Gbs and volume scale production takes root in 2025 and accelerates to true mass production volumes in 2026, these are the FACTS!!! Oh and BTW, I believe that Lebby may very well increase the SAM/SOM guidance at the 2024 ASM a few weeks from now!!
Shorts also CANNOT dispute the FACT that Lebby has come forward to say the response to the OFC demos has been truly off the charts, so much so that Lebby is now entirely focused on engagements with several of the largest Tier 1's in the world, and based on the fact that Lebby has been working to close deals for several months now, these must be "Selections" in the Customer Funnel at this point
Lebby provided SAM/SOM GOALS at ASM for 2024 to 2030
I built a detailed financial model using the SOM/SAM information for 800G and 1.6T pluggable transceivers and it shows a $5-10 billion market cap by 2028 using the "base case" SOM estimates.
It's not perfect, but probably the most precise model anyone has put together so far. A big unknown is the COGS and OPEX, but using 80-85% gross margin (like OLED) and knowing LWLG estimates around 50 employees at mass commercialization...it's probably close. My revenue estimates also center around the value of the modulators, and not necessarily revenue had in technology transfer agreements. I'm not sure how those agreements would be priced and if LWLG would offer a discount so to speak since someone else it spending the money in manufacturing.
This is all just for one application and there are endless applications for super small, fast and efficient modulators. Hell, I even found a white paper using a MZM-based sensors used as a "nose" for fermenting coffee and finding the most precise time to stop the fermenting process.
Now - IMO, the company will be bought out well before we ever hit $1 billion in revenue. That's fine with me. OLED hit $10-15B market cap with around $500 million in revenue.
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