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ElectricMountain53

04/30/24 11:36 AM

#188847 RE: jeunke22 #188841

So, you seem to have all the answers when reading through the posts from the last weeks but that 1 question I asked you earlier this day about the limited inside ownership, I have to search it myself because you ain't got time?? Isn't that one of the most important points to determine if the company believes in his own tech and future SP??? I find this rather strange..

MarcoPolo4

04/30/24 11:53 AM

#188850 RE: jeunke22 #188841

Arista staying with their development plans for LPO and LRO speaks to their confidence (likely over confidence) in their technology and more importantly, the time and effort having been spent so far in that development. Developing new advancements in technology takes a lot of time (don't we know it). Once into that development plan, it is hard to abandon it prematurely. It sounds like they want to play out their hand and see how it can stack up. They are playing it safe I suppose. If their plan doesn't work out over the next year or two they can become a customer once EOPs prove themselves in the initial market launch.

It takes a company or companies to not be wedded to their past successes and to have done their homework, to take a chance on really new technology like EOPs. The race for market share will be heating up as 2024 progresses.

dude abides

04/30/24 12:09 PM

#188857 RE: jeunke22 #188841

Andy B made some very interesting comments in the Q&A - well worth a watch.

Specifically for me this statement:

"what we've observed recently is that end customers (large) are getting quite risk averse in terms of their future purchasing plans - have to commit to millions of optics for deployment next year and realistically they want to use technologies that are in volume production, mature, stable and guaranteed to work and there are lead times, so whatever they're going to deploy next year they need to decide on today."

The lead time for us has been 3 years - goes all the way back to the initial foundry news in 2021.

This statement was specific to large volume production - he does go on to state that some of these newer technologies could still be deployed next year, and that everyone's working very hard on them. Specifically calls out TFLN as not ready.

Lebby told us in December they're working on deals, and in January a "Eureka" moment for polymers is coming "fairly soon."

I think the next press release is a big one