I think the best catalyst would be to show a trend of increasing sales in places like the United Kingdom. I think they said during the third quarter earnings call last year that "meaningful" sales should begin to show up at the end of this year. I hope that is true. I guess any hope of a positive spin being put on the Alzheimer's trial, even if it didn't meet its endpoints, are fading fast since they originally said some results would possibly emerge in March.
I think the share buyback was instituted for multiple reasons and the decision was made carefully with knowledge of things the rest of us can't know. Since that money was originally destined for U.S. promotions, it makes sense to put it to use, even if it's just to buy back shares. For one, Denner likely knows the true value of Amarin shares. So if he sees that a buyback can occur at a quarter or an eighth of the company's true value, he's thinking it's a smart investment that makes the company more appealing to a potential buyer. It was probably also made because Amarin is close enough to "meaningful" sales in Europe and elsewhere that it is confident in profitable quarters ahead, it will also likely be used to keep the share price above a dollar and it sends a message to Wall Street that the company believes in itself. And the company presumably knows about some positive developments in the second half of the year that will raise the share price.
If the company really can't make it on the $270 million that remains after the buyback, then we're all in pretty big trouble.
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