Replies to post #685254 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[skitahoe]

Is it possible that we're making far too much about the added cost of manual manufacturing. I suspect that the company could arrive at a price that they intend to sell DCVax-L for that's independent of how it's produced. It's my belief that many cancer drugs cost hundreds of thousands a year, I believe that NWBO is looking at a few hundred thousand as the total cost of treatment, but I don't know that's the case.

If we take a look at what I believe would be the worst case scenario, manually let's allow 200 hours to make it, that's every hour for over 8 days. Now lets say that every hour during this time a lab clinician has to be working on only that one batch of vaccine. I frankly don't know, but is $100 an hour a fair price for such people, if so we're saying it would take $20K in labor for the one batch. This would be over the cost of making it with the EDEN charging nothing for making it that way.

In reality I believe that one person can probably work with at least two different batches of vaccine, and perhaps several more, I'd like to hear others thought on this, but if we said two, it would bring the added cost to $10K per batch. I believe that NWBO would be in a position to negotiate for what will be charged for DCVax-L without consideration of how it's made. I would hope that the initial cost would be greater, to fully pay for manufacturing cost, and make a small profit, then so much more for each distributed vial of the vaccine.

Feel free to counter my argument, as well as my thinking on prices, but I think the company would be in a stronger position to say this is what we want to be paid, and how we want to be paid, regardless of how the vaccine was actually being manufactured. I also realize the cost of making and operating multiple tiny cleanrooms is far greater than one larger cleanroom, but understand that even in a small cleanroom, a few devices something like baby incubators with gloves that permit access to the media can be utilized so a single person should be able to work without the problems of going between cleanrooms, so productivity can be increased and cost reduced. Just think about it, I don't believe they'll push different prices for different manufacturing. The regulators will want the EDEN to meet capacity requirements, they don't need to be pushed for lower prices.

Gary