Replies to post #455950 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[XenaLives]

Please elucidate on this point..

"MacFarlane's presentation would have raised red flags. Specifically, for the type of endpoints in those trials, Odds Ratio was a very peculiar choice, especially since there were no numbers reported about how many of the trial subjects crossed the threshold used for calculating the Odds Ratios. The reddest flag of all was the failure to include a comparison of the means for the ADCS-ADL endpoint. I believe these are the reasons Doc328, for example, sold his shares. Furthermore, the December 5 conference call was pathetic and did not confront the doubts raised by critics, including Feuerstein. I think Feuerstein is a schmuck, but not all his criticisms of the top-line results release, IIRC, were bull."

I encourage others to re-read and discuss the points you made in the replied to post. It is balanced, with a lot of food for thought.

I believe you and I would make ideal lead plaintiffs in a securities suit based on the CTAD presentation, but I'm not going to volunteer to do that. I wish the lawsuits would just disappear. (BTW, in contrast, I see no basis for a lawsuit based on the Rett results and PRs.)

I also want to include here, that I think Anavex's shot at approval is better than at any previous time since I've been involved. The combination of "Kun Jin's <0.025 p-value finesse," the recent biomarker results such as regarding brain volume, and the FDA's draft guidance negating the import of the ADCS-ADL endpoint, seems to me to make the P2b/3 trial results an excellent basis for approval. I wish, of course, that I'd sold on December 2 or 5, and that I were doing my AVXL purchasing now. I've sold over half my shares, very belatedly and at a big loss, but I still have a substantial amount. If I didn't already own "enough," I would now, in light of what I said earlier in this paragraph, be buying more.

We need a world where medicine's priority is to make people better..... Not make money for stockholders which are increasingly defined as hedge funds and institutional interests who have PROFIT as their primary goal. Such institutions face a conflict of interest...

The following quote is hypothetical:

Gee, if people have an effective treatment for CNS diseases they wont buy as much of the ... (shit that we already control) and we'll loose money.

This article will give you a hint of the $$$$$$$$$$$$ involved..


https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/central-nervous-system-cns-therapeutics-market-report-priya-tripathi-dafqc/?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_more-articles_related-content-card

[plexrec]

Joseph---" that I think Anavex's shot at approval is better than at any previous time"---good to hear you say this---still holding the shares I purchased in 2015 and later in the hope W still GT !!!

[crescentmotor]

That was an excellent post Joseph_K.

[Investor2014]

Yes not looking great on the surface, but might workout - as always only more time will tell if approval can come from currently completed trials or we need more.

The $AVXL story is one from which a biotech investor can learn that a PR and results can at first glance appear WGT, but are objectively not. Then adjust approach with a willingness to learn instead blaming the boogeyman. Use the experience to know irrational price spikes when they happen and sell at least some of a position to own the rest at lower risk of losses and by all means keeping doing it while keeping a balanced portfolio. It takes time and disappoint, but it is a learning process to go through that can make biotech investing fruitful and exciting especially when a drug or treatment that truly helps people succeeds.

[sage4]

Appreciated your honest and matter-of-factly writing always.
It's irony for me to be more hopeful at the 3 year low.
At least I've learned to keep peace in spite of pps's down trend.