Replies to post #373 on Contrarian Value Ideas

[gfp927z]

Derf, Yes, looks like the strength in SCCO continues. I missed the boat on copper, but did pick up a little RIO, along with several nuclear related ETFs (URA and NLR), albeit tiny positions. I'm thinking of these as longer term buy / holds, and they have nice dividends. A little late with NLR though. I had some last Fall but unfortunately decided to exit. NLR holds a number of smaller nuclear utilities that have been on a tear. But even after the runup, I figure a small LT investment will at least give some exposure to the sector.

Gold continues it's breakout from that 12 year cup + handle, and it looks like silver may be starting to join in.

With copper, using the futures chart as a guide, it looks like there could be another ~ 10% upside before it reaches the resistance levels ~ 4.5. Just a guess though, and these commodities are unpredictable. But since the Chinese decision to cut production was reportedly a key factor that ignited the current copper move, maybe it has further to go, but tough to say. I figure it's better to go with longer term trends, but copper also has that aspect, with the global 'electric everything' paradigm. I missed the boat with SCCO, so maybe on a pullback. But as a shorter term trade, nice going :o)



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[gfp927z]

Derf, With SMCI, it looks like support at the rising 50 MA. I figure it's a logical longer term buy / hold, but am only holding the 'free' shares from the previous double. Looks like the chart is pretty much tracking NVDA. I'm figuring on holding these longer term, but only small positions.

It's actually good to see the market consolidating. Europe really needed it, based on the German chart and the Euro Stoxx 50 futures charts. Both had spiked for 2-3 months without a real pullback. Unlike here, Europe's economy has been weak / recession, so they are lowering % rates before the US Fed does.

Looking at Fed policy, they are guiding for 3 rate cuts this year, so Jim Rickards is predicting July, Nov, and Dec. He says Oct is out since it's too close to the election, and July may be more likely than June since the Fed isn't in much hurry with the US economy so resilient, and July will give an extra month of inflation data. Sounds logical, and Fed easing should give an underlying tailwind, and help offset other uncertainties, geopolitical and the election. Always something to worry about though.. For Fed policy guidance, check out the Nick Timiroas (WSJ) headlines periodically, since he's the designated Fed leaker to Wall Street -


https://www.wsj.com/news/author/nick-timiraos



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