Abeta,
Are your figures for the UK only, or the world. If the world, I think they're low.
Frankly if NWBO contracts for all services in manufacturing, storing and supplying the vaccine to each patient I'd be thrilled if the received $100K or even $50K for each patient. That money would be received with virtually almost no money being spent by the company for it. Depending on how the distribution of the EDEN unit is handled, that too could be a major profit center as long as the number of EDEN units was expanding. As I see it, with the adoption of DCVax-L, and ultimately Direct for many forms of solid cancers, demand for the EDEN unit could be great for over a decade or two.
If as I believe the EDEN's are leased and maintained by the company, just lease renewals could be a major profit center as the numbers in use each year grow for the foreseeable future. I'm frankly uncertain if every disposable cassette will pass through the company, or be supplied by St. Gobain's Glass directly to the manufacturing site, but regardless, I'd expect that NWBO would receive something for each cassette that was delivered.
Of course I may be wrong, the company may do everything themselves, the cost would be quite high, but they'd earn more per patient. I just don't believe they're set up to operate in that manner.
At one time, many years ago, IMGN had it's own production facilities. At some point they abandoned that approach, they went with CDMO's, who for all I know purchase the companies facilities. I believe that CRL and Advent are completely set up to perform these function for NWBO once approvals come in. I don't know if UK approval will be sufficient to formalize the CRL agreement, or it will take approval in the US or elsewhere.
I don't know the total population of the world being diagnosed with a solid cancer annually. I believe it's well into the millions. Can you imagine how big we could be if 5% to 10% of all with solid cancer gained treatment with DCVax's. For talking purposes lets say a half million patients a year were having a DCVax made, at 50 batch a year per EDEN, that's 10,000 EDEN's. If they leased for $10,000 a year that would be $100 million a year. I doubt if NWBO would be spending much more than a million or so in maintaining all the units. At a P/E of 10 that's $1 billion added to the market cap. I think these numbers are reasonably conservative, but I welcome others thoughts about them.
Gart
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