Replies to post #250849 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Rfj, what’s your take on the thread starting at #msg-173804594 with replies running to #msg-173805959? TIA

Congratulations on your VKTX gains!

[Mufaso]

rfj1862 - Well said:

At this point management has my full trust, obviously. I did not sell any of my remaining shares on this pop and plan to hold through acquisition, which I feel is 100% inevitable.

I didn't sell any of my shares on this pop either. I had prepared myself prior to the venture announcement on what to do based on results vs tirzepatide. Please see #msg-173869018 where I commented:

I like the possibility that Venture will show very few discontinuations/AE’s due to the drug while showing efficacy superior to Tirzepatide in an aggressive titration schedule that will likely get relaxed in ph3. This will not be lost on large pharma who is also aware that the majority of LLY’s $750B is due to its GLP1/GIP compound (and not it’s triple g which has tolerability plus serious safety concerns). There is no other GLP1/GIP compound out there that I'm aware of for large pharma to get now that Carmot is off the market. IMO, in the scenario where Venture beats tirzepatide for tolerability and efficacy, VKTX will be bought out for an 11 figure number. In the scenario where it matches tirzepatide in Venture, it will be a high 10 figure number. Again, I like the risk/reward and am holding through the Venture readout for sure with VKTX being my largest portfolio position by far.

My reaction to the data readout was that VK2735 was not just superior to Tirzepatide but clearly so both on efficacy and tolerability. Also- it’s likely at least equal from an efficacy standpoint to LLY’s “safety challenged” triple G Retraglutide that is still in development.

So now I think there is no question to whether VKTX as a buyout candidate will fetch an 11 figure number (as in above $10B USD) . It will. The question now is how high an 11 figure number. ( or maybe a really lucrative partnership deal may materialize because VKTX may just be too pricey?) I’m going to be posting on this when I can find time.

As to what I did the day the results on venture were announced? Well I had about 15% of my portfolio in cash looking for a good opportunity. Given the market cap of VKTX was well under where I thought it should be (or rather where I think it will go), that management was holding back important data likely to be positive (more on that later) I bought more VKTX using half of my remaining cash.

BTW- your post #msg-171506339 from last year before Viking released phase 1 results on VK2735 belongs in the Biotech Values hall of fame if there were such a thing. If I may, I’d like to comment on yesterday's VKTX price action after their successful secondary raise of $550 million.

Yesterday’s 18% fall in VKTX was the second most idiotic thing I’ve seen in my six years of following this stock.

Maybe a slight fall was in order because of the raise or maybe because the stock had some short covering but Viking is largely de-risked now:

• VK2735 works and works really well in sub q form.
  
• A bunch of smart investors just put down over a half a billion (at $85 a share) to show their conviction.
  
• VKTX has multiple other blockbuster potential drugs/indications that minimally include Nash, X-Ald and Oral weight loss.

While VKTX is not completely de-risked (bad things could still happen), like you, I also believe acquisition is "100% inevitable." I continue to like the risk/reward Viking offers better than anything else out there.