Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

Marthambles – Saw on the Revance board that you sold some VKTX and added to Revance. Taking profits is never foolish. I took some VKTX (and RVNC in the 30’s) off the table last year (May) and diversified into the automotive space (bought a 2023 Dodge Durango Hellcat). Sold enough last year to also diversify some more into the naval arena recently (new 24 ft open bow w/350 hp I/O). But for now I'm holding on to the rest of my VKTX. I however admit after yesterday I've been thinking of more diversification.(I like the risk reward with RVNC as well but would like to see improvement there first before adding any more.) Everyone needs to decide what risks they can take based on their own life situation. FWIW-My risk tolerance profile is high insofar as I could tolerate a total loss in my portfolio of any one of my stocks and be fine. I'm keeping my remaining VKTX because of FOMO in spite of the recent rise. (It may well be short covering and a short lived rise but when the readouts come, VKTX has a real chance for much higher levels very near term.)

As you know, there are significant risks with VKTX. The biggest one I see is one like the one that befell ALT last year when they released interim phase 2 data on their Permvidutide GLP1/glucagon compound because of a large discontinuation rate and AE’s. Jbog said “Alt ran a stupid trial that used very little titration (4 weeks, only max dose) and absolutely no dose adjustment.” Well, Viking has a very aggressive titration schedule in their 13 wk. Venture trial and they did not allow for dose adjustment. VK2735 starts at 5mg and gets to 15mg at 10 weeks while Tirzepatide stated their 15 mg dose at 2.5mg and didn’t get to 15 till week 21. For a graphical comparison look at this comparison of dosing for VK2735 vs Semaglutide and Tirzepitide that was posted by Pharmdca on X:


While I am open to the possibility that something could go wrong because of the dosing schedule (or something else), I don’t believe it is probable for several reasons. Viking knew about what happened to ALT before they created the study protocol for Venture. They had preclinical data and the phase 1 study that led them to believe VK2735 has an rock solid safety/tolerability profile. The company is well funded, led by an exceptional CEO and doesn’t need to take unnecessary risks. Additionally, Viking has two other compounds that provide a floor should something go badly with VK2735.

I like the possibility that Venture will show very few discontinuations/AE’s due to the drug while showing efficacy superior to Tirzepatide in an aggressive titration schedule that will likely get relaxed in ph3. This will not be lost on large pharma who is also aware that the majority of LLY’s $750B is due to its GLP1/GIP compound (and not it’s triple g which has tolerability plus serious safety concerns). There is no other GLP1/GIP compound out there that I'm aware of for large pharma to get now that Carmot is off the market. IMO, in the scenario where Venture beats tirzepatide for tolerability and efficacy, VKTX will be bought out for an 11 figure number. In the scenario where it matches tirzepatide in Venture, it will be a high 10 figure number. Again, I like the risk/reward and am holding through the Venture readout for sure with VKTX being my largest portfolio position by far.