Replies to post #673719 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Chiugray]

CapHillGuy, Totally agree with you and ATLnsider.

Let me add my thoughts on why NWBO’s valuation should not be looked at through the lens of a typical drug company’s realizable revenue opportunity.

Today’s drugs generally have a limited scope. All drugs are approved for specific cancer indications. They also have a high toxic risk profile, bad for off-label use. They typically are single biomarker drugs treating a heterogeneous cancer, so they also are limited in their efficacy and ultimately do not cure the underlying cancer. So, doctors and patients are constantly weighing the plus and minuses, and that invites many alternatives and competition drugs, further shrinking their realizable revenue.

Limited scope (realizable revenue is a % of a % of a %)
1. cancer type
2. cancer subtypes within the type (e.g. breast cancer has 4 main subtypes, each utilize different treatments)
3. cancer stage within each subtype (1 to 4, where 4 is most advanced)
4. lines of therapy within each stage (1st, 2nd, 3rd… failure, drug resistance, toxicity, financial will significantly reduce # of patients in each next step)
5. competition with other drugs

Compare that to DCVax, using Newly Diagnosed Primary Brain Tumors in the USA in 2023 as an example.
https://braintumor.org/brain-tumors/about-brain-tumors/brain-tumor-facts/

Total patients - 94,390, 100%
Stage 4 GBM – 14%
Stage 3 malignant – 14%
Stage 1 and 2 benign - 72%

Comments
1. Thanks to ATLnsider, post 666649, we know the DCVax-L MAA submitted to the MHRA was to approve all GBM, malignant gliomas, and AA (anaplastic astrocytomas)
2. Landmark clinical trial results over current SOC, so it should be the new SOC, 1st line therapy. 70+ neurooncologists globally coauthored the JAMA report.
3. It delivered both 1) a significant increase in long term survival and 2) no grade 3 or 4 side effects. “That’s just not something we see in oncology on a regular basis or ever.”
4. It creates immune memory to prevent metastases and future recurrence. That is unique for DCVax. Should be a critical factor for patients and oncologists.
5. When possible, surgery is part of the standard care for all newly diagnosed brain tumors, including stage 1 and 2 tumors (key for using DCVax-L).
6. Because DCVax delivers efficacy, immune memory, and is non-toxic, it is an ideal choice for off-label use in stage 1 and 2 brain tumors, as prophylactic to prevent risk of tumor progression.
7. Its technology platform is ideal for combination therapies (non-toxic, does not add to cumulative toxicity levels). That minimizes the potential loss of market share to competition drugs.

Translation
- Applicable for the entire brain tumor type
- Malignant brain tumors - 28%
- Benign brain tumors – off-label use would be a tbd % of 72%
- Used as a 1st line of treatment
- Viewed by oncologists and cancer patients as a vastly superior therapy

Things have to play out of course, but this is just to illustrate DCVax has a much larger realizable revenue than typical other drugs.

Further brain tumor is just one cancer type. DCVax is a vaccine and a technology platform, so the traits that apply to brain tumors should be tissue agnostic and apply to other solid tumors. So the opportunities potentially are unlimited.

Note: There is further realizable revenue upside not mentioned, those currently living with brain tumors (1M in the USA today). That is 10X larger than the newly diagnosed primary tumor per year numbers talked about above.

ALL is IMHO.