It's been a few years since I first invested in NWBO. At that time I believe that many of those bashing the stock truly believed the technology had no chance of being approved. Over the years I think that many of the biggest doubters have changed their mind about never gaining approval, some say UK, but not USA, others have differing opinions, some believe additional trials will be needed. My point is, many who said no or never before are now saying maybe, some still say not the FDA, but more seem to concede that after the UK is proven, others will start to fall in line.
I don't know what the legal settlement may bring, but one thing is certain, if the Judge sees it as a valid case, no one can deny that NWBO could have generated all the funds they've needed with a tiny fraction of the shares they've needed to sell because the price was driven so low. I wouldn't be surprised if the Judge finds in NWBO's favor if the MM's almost immediately made a settlement offer to avoid a trial. Clearly they might get more if they go to trial, but I believe what they bring in would have greater benefit if they had it soon, over a trial which could be delayed a couple years, but provided more money later. Certainly I doubt if NWBO will take the first offer, but if they wish to settle, I think it will get done.
If a settlement and UK approval came in at roughly the same time, NWBO would not only get a huge boost in the share price, they'd also be well positioned to operate for years without either BP partnership, or buyout. That doesn't mean it doesn't happen, it means that NWBO is in a better position to achieve a much better deal. BP's love nothing more than circling a struggling biotech like vultures and swooping in for a penny on the dollar. That doesn't happen when the biotech is on strong financial footing. NWBO without a settlement will be on steadier footing because of the higher share prices after UK approval, but they'll still need to dilute until the revenue stream fills in.
Where we go after UK approval is largely dependent on events planned beyond the UK. I believe when we have the Annual Meeting we'll learn the status of the EDEN unit and the company's plan regarding approaching the other regulators. We also should learn about the new trials they intend to initiate in the foreseeable future. All of this will play into the where the price goes during the remainder of the year, and that price may play a big part in determining when a partnership or buyout is achieved. With few exceptions, the partner or buyer won't pay more than twice the share price at the time to do so.
After the UK approval it will be interesting to see how many who previously said you'll never get the FDA approval change their mind.
Gary
Bullish
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