Replies to post #667909 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[biosectinvestor]

I wrote this on my phone and kind of quickly and corrected my self as I went along, but let’s not say actual market cap but potential addressable market after all the discounting. I do think the later numbers are reasonable estimates for a potential market cap as well, ultimately and assuming a credible commercial company exists, which likely means deep pockets backing. And it is not a share price estimate as that depends on dilution as well, ultimately.

[skitahoe]

Sorry Biosect,

We're actually in agreement. Perhaps I wasn't clear, but upon approval in the UK what I suggested was prior to earnings actually being seen, valuation will certainly move up as revenue grows and I have little doubt that with growth continuing to be substantially higher with each succeeding quarter NWBO should justify a P/E of 30, perhaps even more based on the news. I believe it will take a few quarters worth of results for the investing public to see what should be happening here.

As for how fast things happen, much will depends on what the company says, and perhaps more importantly what it does. I have no idea if we'll be told that before year's end all regulators will be working on approval, or if the goal will be to go to one more before the end of the year. There is so much we don't know, but if the guidance says it's all coming to fruition very shortly, no telling how high we could go this year. On the other hand it may take longer, if it does we'll continue to climb, just not quite as fast.

I hope we'll have an Annual Meeting shortly and get such guidance, but I suspect the guidance may not be forthcoming until the company has achieved certain goals, and I don't know what they are, or when they expect to achieve them. LP is calling the shots and I can live with what she decides to do, even if I and many others may have done it differently.

Gary

[skitahoe]

Sorry I failed to mention something else in my earlier message. Your figures were conservative as you indicated a substantial percentage weren't having surgery. In some cases this may have been because the tumor was considered inoperable, but in others I believe it was based on the belief that something else was working. If DCVax-L proves to be significantly better than whatever the something else is, don't you think that many of the patients who could choose surgery, along with DCVax-L will do so.

The other question, which may be answered years from now with DCVax-Direct, is, in patients with tumors deemed to be inoperative, would it be possible to actually extract sufficient material from the tumor to make DCVax-L. I guess I'm suggesting something like a cross between needle biopsy and liposuction to remove sufficient mass to get the vaccine made. I'm asking, not saying it can be done, but I believe that today many things can be done with robotics that get into places that previously required major surgery with tiny specialized instruments.

I guess what I'm saying is with evidence that DCVax-L, perhaps with other therapeutics, is by far the most effective way of fighting these cancers, can we find a way to reach nearly all discovered with it.

Of course everything I'm saying about brain cancer should be equally true of other solid cancers after DCVax-L is proven to be more effective in treating it as well. I'd frankly hate to see NWBO bought out on the strength of brain cancer alone if a little more time will show it should be applied to many other solid cancers. I'm fine with a BP partner helping us get their sooner.

Some people think I'm kidding, but if NWBO remained independent, and if both DCVax's prove effective against most cancers, a trillion dollar market cap is not out of the question. It could easily take a decade or more, but I prefer allowing it to grow that way then some short term buyout, even at figures of $45 billion, or more. I would suspect that if we ever reached a trillion market cap we might have as many as 3 to 5 billion shares outstanding, such dilution wouldn't bother me if we had that sort of growth.

Gary

[Chiugray]

Biosectinvestor, Thanks for sharing your thinking on market cap numbers. My own estimates are in the same rough ballpark, so this is helpful. I think the whole purpose is not so much in the exact number but to learn about process and to understand roughly how big the market potential is for treating brain tumors.

There are way too many attempts by a few folks who are not investors, constantly trying to play on the emotions of legitimate investors to get them to downplay the stock price potential "even after approval". When on the contrary, there is much to be very optimistic for. DCVax is an advancement of medicine, a potential cancer curing therapy for patients, and a unicorn investment for investors who know how to value the revenue potential of unicorns.

[joeycav11]

Excellent post Biosect regarding a realistic market cap going forward. Love the added colour!

[Doc logic]

biosectinvestor,

Very well thought out and conservative as you left the anchors on. Once word gets out about everything NWBO is working on I figure we’ll see a little more of the good old days of “irrational exuberance” which in this case might very well be justified ; ). Best wishes.

[olekbolek]

thanks Bio - but what do you think is the share count if we would talk about a 30B market cap?