Moved LLY's Orforglipon to top of list for "most interesting NME's" NME’s based upon ph2 results
Added info on VKTX’s VK2735 timing/expectations
Revised GPCR’s GSBR-1290 to reflect market’s reduced expectations
Added PFE’s unnamed ph1 compound with unnamed MOA as an interesting NME.
Revised summary observations
Here is an updated list of ORAL weight loss drugs currently in trials listed in possible commercial success tiers:
Most Interesting NME's Owner Drug MOA Comments
LLY Orforglipron GLP1 In ph2 high dose of 120mg got 3% weight loss at 4 wks, 8% at 8wks, and 13% at 36 weeks per GSBR comparison presentation. VKTX VK2735 GLP1/GIP In phase 1- peptide- due to report 1st q2024- injectable form had up to 6% loss at 4 weeks. Oral will likely be less efficacious. AZN ECC5004 GLP-1 In Phase 1- small molecule GLP1- AZN paid 185mill + up to 1.8B milestones + royalties for compound. PFE PF-06954522 GLP-1 GLP1 for Type 2 Diabetes - just entered Ph1- very little info Kallyope K757&K833 Hormone new oral nutrient receptor agonists that stimulate the secretion of multiple appetite-suppressing satiety hormones AMGN Not Named Undisclosed Probably oral version of AMG 133 which activates GLP1 but inhibits GIP GPCR GSBR-1290 GLP1 Structure Therapeutics -In larger ph2 study only showed 4% weight loss at 8weeks and look inferior to LLY's Orforglipron for both weight loss and T2D (Significant weight loss shown in 28day Phase 1 (up to 4.9%) was not borne out in larger ph2 study) PFE Not Named "Non-GLP1" Likely oral in Ph1- mentioned at JPM webcast- JPM webcast. For competitive reasons, PFE is not disclosing the MOA. See #msg-173587109
May surprise
PFE PF-06882961 GLP1 Danuglipron- Small Molecule- completed ph1 and in ph2b NOVO Rybelsus GLP1 Semaglutide- approved for Diabetes only but used off label TERN TERN-601 GLP1 Management discussing this drug in combination- not competitive standalone?
Not going forward
PFE Lotiglipron GLP1 Discontinued due to elevated liver enzymes
Here are some observations:
PFE stated they at JPM Jan webcast that they are not going to do any “multi-billion acquisition obesity deals” but left partnership open
Kallyope is private but someone may buy them or strike a deal.
Viking Therapeutics(VKTX) and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) are the only small public companies with a NME having a potentially successful ORAL blockbuster and are buyout candidates. All other public companies are already "Big Pharma". Note that GPCR’s phase 2 results lessened appeal.
Viking has yet to complete phase one for the oral form of VK2735. (only completed ph1 on the injectable form of VK2735). Phase 1 injectable form showed 6% weight loss at highest dose. Oral should be less effective.
Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) market cap was reduced by 50% to $2B based upon ph2 for GSBR-1290
Roche paid an eye opening $2.7B for Carmot Therapeutics and prevented Carmot from going public
Again, anyone with knowledge of new Oral weight loss drug candidates is encouraged to reply to this post.