Replies to post #250370 on Biotech Values

[Mufaso]

Yes- Thank you! I will fix...

[Mufaso]

UPDATED-List of ORAL Weight loss candidates.

01/18/2024-Corrected Changes:

• Moved LLY's Orforglipon to top of list for "most interesting NME's" NME’s based upon ph2 results
  
• Added info on VKTX’s VK2735 timing/expectations
  
• Revised GPCR’s GSBR-1290 to reflect market’s reduced expectations
  
• Added PFE’s unnamed ph1 compound with unnamed MOA as an interesting NME.
  
• Revised summary observations

Here is an updated list of ORAL weight loss drugs currently in trials listed in possible commercial success tiers:

 
 		                Most Interesting NME's 
 		Owner	Drug	MOA		Comments 
 						 
 		LLY	Orforglipron 	GLP1		In ph2 high dose of 120mg got 3% weight loss at 4 wks, 8% at 8wks, and 13% at 36 weeks per GSBR comparison presentation. 
 		VKTX	VK2735		GLP1/GIP	In phase 1- peptide- due to report 1st q2024- injectable form had up to 6% loss at 4 weeks. Oral will likely be less efficacious.  
 		AZN	ECC5004	        GLP-1		In Phase 1- small molecule GLP1- AZN paid 185mill + up to 1.8B milestones + royalties for compound.  
 		PFE	PF-06954522 	GLP-1		GLP1 for Type 2 Diabetes - just entered Ph1- very little info 
 		Kallyope K757&K833	Hormone		new oral nutrient receptor agonists that stimulate the secretion of multiple appetite-suppressing satiety hormones 
 		AMGN	Not Named	Undisclosed	Probably oral version of AMG 133 which activates GLP1 but inhibits GIP 
 		GPCR	GSBR-1290	GLP1		Structure Therapeutics -In larger ph2 study only showed 4% weight loss at 8weeks and look inferior to LLY's Orforglipron for both weight loss and T2D  (Significant weight loss shown  in 28day Phase 1 (up to 4.9%) was not borne out in larger ph2 study) 
 		PFE	Not Named	"Non-GLP1"	Likely oral in Ph1- mentioned at JPM webcast- JPM webcast. For competitive reasons, PFE is not disclosing the MOA. See #msg-173587109 
 						 
 				May surprise			 
 							 
 		PFE	PF-06882961 	GLP1		Danuglipron- Small Molecule- completed ph1 and in ph2b 
 		NOVO	Rybelsus	GLP1		Semaglutide- approved for Diabetes only but used off label 
 		TERN	TERN-601	GLP1		Management discussing this drug in combination- not competitive standalone? 
 										 
 				Not going forward			 
 						 
 		PFE	Lotiglipron 	GLP1		Discontinued due to elevated liver enzymes

Here are some observations:

• PFE stated they at JPM Jan webcast that they are not going to do any “multi-billion acquisition obesity deals” but left partnership open
  
• Kallyope is private but someone may buy them or strike a deal.
  
• Viking Therapeutics(VKTX) and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) are the only small public companies with a NME having a potentially successful ORAL blockbuster and are buyout candidates. All other public companies are already "Big Pharma". Note that GPCR’s phase 2 results lessened appeal.
  
• Viking has yet to complete phase one for the oral form of VK2735. (only completed ph1 on the injectable form of VK2735). Phase 1 injectable form showed 6% weight loss at highest dose. Oral should be less effective.
  
• Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) market cap was reduced by 50% to $2B based upon ph2 for GSBR-1290
  
• Roche paid an eye opening $2.7B for Carmot Therapeutics and prevented Carmot from going public

Again, anyone with knowledge of new Oral weight loss drug candidates is encouraged to reply to this post.