UPDATED-List of ORAL Weight loss candidates.
01/18/2024-Corrected Changes:
- Moved LLY's Orforglipon to top of list for "most interesting NME's" NME’s based upon ph2 results
- Added info on VKTX’s VK2735 timing/expectations
- Revised GPCR’s GSBR-1290 to reflect market’s reduced expectations
- Added PFE’s unnamed ph1 compound with unnamed MOA as an interesting NME.
- Revised summary observations
Here is an updated list of ORAL weight loss drugs currently in trials listed in possible commercial success tiers:
Most Interesting NME's
Owner Drug MOA Comments
LLY Orforglipron GLP1 In ph2 high dose of 120mg got 3% weight loss at 4 wks, 8% at 8wks, and 13% at 36 weeks per GSBR comparison presentation.
VKTX VK2735 GLP1/GIP In phase 1- peptide- due to report 1st q2024- injectable form had up to 6% loss at 4 weeks. Oral will likely be less efficacious.
AZN ECC5004 GLP-1 In Phase 1- small molecule GLP1- AZN paid 185mill + up to 1.8B milestones + royalties for compound.
PFE PF-06954522 GLP-1 GLP1 for Type 2 Diabetes - just entered Ph1- very little info
Kallyope K757&K833 Hormone new oral nutrient receptor agonists that stimulate the secretion of multiple appetite-suppressing satiety hormones
AMGN Not Named Undisclosed Probably oral version of AMG 133 which activates GLP1 but inhibits GIP
GPCR GSBR-1290 GLP1 Structure Therapeutics -In larger ph2 study only showed 4% weight loss at 8weeks and look inferior to LLY's Orforglipron for both weight loss and T2D (Significant weight loss shown in 28day Phase 1 (up to 4.9%) was not borne out in larger ph2 study)
PFE Not Named "Non-GLP1" Likely oral in Ph1- mentioned at JPM webcast- JPM webcast. For competitive reasons, PFE is not disclosing the MOA. See #msg-173587109
May surprise
PFE PF-06882961 GLP1 Danuglipron- Small Molecule- completed ph1 and in ph2b
NOVO Rybelsus GLP1 Semaglutide- approved for Diabetes only but used off label
TERN TERN-601 GLP1 Management discussing this drug in combination- not competitive standalone?
Not going forward
PFE Lotiglipron GLP1 Discontinued due to elevated liver enzymes
Here are some observations:
- PFE stated they at JPM Jan webcast that they are not going to do any “multi-billion acquisition obesity deals” but left partnership open
- Kallyope is private but someone may buy them or strike a deal.
- Viking Therapeutics(VKTX) and Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) are the only small public companies with a NME having a potentially successful ORAL blockbuster and are buyout candidates. All other public companies are already "Big Pharma". Note that GPCR’s phase 2 results lessened appeal.
- Viking has yet to complete phase one for the oral form of VK2735. (only completed ph1 on the injectable form of VK2735). Phase 1 injectable form showed 6% weight loss at highest dose. Oral should be less effective.
- Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) market cap was reduced by 50% to $2B based upon ph2 for GSBR-1290
- Roche paid an eye opening $2.7B for Carmot Therapeutics and prevented Carmot from going public
Again, anyone with knowledge of new Oral weight loss drug candidates is encouraged to reply to this post.
