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Replies to post #83885 on Tesla Inc (TSLA)
“We are facing an absolute step change in the risk environment surrounding reliability and
energy assurance,” said John Moura, NERC’s director of Reliability Assessment and
Performance Analysis. “In recent years, we’ve witnessed a decline in reliability, and the
future projection does not offer a clear path to securing the reliable electricity supply that
is essential for the health, safety and prosperity of our communities.”
The assessment found growth rates of forecasted peak demand and energy have risen
significantly since the 2022 LTRA, reversing a decades-long trend of falling or flat growth
rates. Electrification and projections for growth in data centers and electric vehicles are
contributing to the higher forecasts. In addition, electrification of heating systems is having
a pronounced effect on seasonal demand, causing summer-peaking regions in the U.S.
Northeast and Southeast to anticipate a change from summer peak-demand season to
winter or even dual-season peaks.
The amount of bulk power system transmission projects reported as “under construction” or “in planning for
construction” in the next 10 years has increased. These new transmission projects are being driven to support new
generation interconnection and enhance reliability. However, siting and permitting challenges continue to impose
delays in transmission expansion planning. While regional transmission planning processes are adapting to manage
the energy transition, impediments to transmission development remain.
The energy and capacity analysis identifies an expanding area for future potential electricity shortfalls. Most areas
are projected to have adequate electricity supply resources to meet demand forecasts associated with normal
weather; however, there are two areas identified as not having the reserves to meet resource adequacy criteria:
• Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO): New resource additions have overcome the planning
reserve deficits that were reported in the 2022 LTRA and projected to occur in 2023. Beginning in 2028,
MISO is projected to have a 4.7 GW shortfall if expected generator retirements occur, despite the addition
of new resources that total more than 12 GW.
• SERC-Central: There is a shortfall in planned reserves in the 2025–2027 period as demand forecasts increase
faster than the transitioning resource mix grows. This assessment area will add more than 7 GW of natural
gas generation and retire more than 5 GW of coal generation over the period.
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