Replies to post #443959 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[sage4]

Thank you, Mayo, for your efforts and sharing always!!
Merry Christmas! 🎄🎄🎄

[kund]

I am waiting for $6000 price target, AVXL2-73 was supposed to be in market in 2020, we are in 2023. Do you have any new projection?

[boi568]

Jesse, excellent work as always.

Based on the September Anavex PR, I estimated the reduced pathological brain loss and its clinical effect in this post:

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172981719

You estimate that blarcamesine could extend the MCI period by 5 to 6 years. My conclusion, based on less information than you were able to use, and therefore less reliable, was "administration of blarcamesine could extend [the MCI] period for 3 or 4 additional years." (I later adjusted calculations for brain loss reduction in a follow up post).

One minor point: I see that the Anavex graphic describing p values on brain loss reduction across regions of the brain shows a higher p value for the parietal lobe than other areas. You note that the parietal lobe deterioration comes later in the disease. Consequently, there will be less separation in brain volume loss in the parietal lobe in MCI/early AD than elsewhere, and a p value should therefore be more difficult to measure than in the amygdala or hippocampus, for example. It does not suggest to me that blarcamesine works less effectively in the parietal lobe.

[kund]

So you are still working on 10year old data from phase2a. How this trial still relevant when Misleading moved to phase2/3 possibly pivotal, which has failed?