Replies to post #443922 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[kund]

No one will touch this POS; forget about a buyout. Misleading has eroded any value this drug had. The guy is running never-ending trials with questionable data readout. Every data readout sounds like he is hiding more than what he is trying to tell the world. Those rett videos are promotional, looks like Misleading is desperate to show something.

He didn't receive a raise or new option grants for the last two years. His performance is dismissive, the corporate presentation is still from May 23, and the catalyst list remains the same as in 2020. In 2023 he didn't attend many dog and pony shows, those conference people might have told him that they are tired of his old ppt and get something new, which he can't produce.

[boi568]

A couple of years ago an economic think tank (I forget the name) that concerns itself with such things estimated that a listed company in possession of an efficacious AD drug that was allowed to file an NDA was worth an additional $20B in market cap, and that an FDA approval was worth an additional $42B in market cap.

Times have changed in the biotech sector, and even then an approval for Anavex, which will need a large partner, may have resulted in half those amounts. There was no mention of the EU market which, for all I know, may have been included in those numbers. And I guess we should apply a "Who is Anavex discount?" as well.

Nonetheless, even with all those caveats, by 2025 an Anavex buyout, if blarcamesine will have been approved for sale in the US and the EU for Alzheimer's Disease, should be priced at multiples of $14B. (Remember, in a buyout you don't apply a partnership discount.)

[Anshu2]

You guys are delusional. Buyout at any point would never be more than 3x the market price.

My best/dream case scenarios would be: Rett approval plus EU AD approval over next 1-2 years.

IF that happens (10-20% probability, I’d say), then we may see $100-150.

FDA AD approval of any kind can only happen after another trial — which by CM’s pace I’d say is another 5-7 years if at all.

Minimal chance of any other indication approval coming into play before 5 years.