Replies to post #438854 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[abew4me]

Thanks bas.

[georgejjl]

Thank you Bas2020

Some people may be interested in the following excerpt:

An estimated 6.7 million Americans struggle with Alzheimer's, requiring about $340 billion in unpaid caregiving each year. If one excludes some of those with Alzheimer's and includes some of those who have yet to be diagnosed with outright dementia, and if you go with around 6 million figure as the U.S. market for Blarcamesine; and if you assume that Anavex receives on average $2000 from each of those 6 million (some buy it for $8000 and most don't buy it at all, for instance); then you are looking at $12 billion in annual revenues. If you value Anavex at 1x revenues, then the stock price is $146.

Good luck and GOD bless,

[nidan7500]

Today's seeking Alpha article makes it very clear that the FDA has gone down the wrong STAT-SPEAK path and that the real tool-suite discussed here yesterday is far better when assessing AD trial results. IMO.

Yes, this new biomarker analysis technology has been licensed to a young company, Ampera Life.

https://www.amperalife.com/

That’s good news. To be used the technology must be commercially available. Not possible with a mere prototype device used only to demonstrate the technology, resting on the bench of some university lab (in this case UC Sand Diego). With this contractual arrangement, Ampera can manufacture the devices that can be used in up-coming clinical trials.

Using the new biomarker analysis device wouldn’t it be interesting to see the data from a clinical Alzheimer’s trial comparing blarcamesine with Aricept, Aduhelm, Leqembi, or any of the others so wonderfully approved for clinical use.

WGT

[ExtremelyBullishZig]

No...mainly because you have yo consider the source. It hasn't provided anything new and it doesn't mention that there is missing data.

[georgejjl]

If you haven’t read the SeekingAlpha article yet, the read it now!!!

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=173219197

Good luck and GOD bless,

[BioMojo]

Thanks so much Bas!

[DoTheRightThing]

To anyone new here -- a) this Bas dude of course didn't include the disclaimer at the bottom of the article where the author discloses he is long the stock, so obviously take the whole thing with a grain of salt, and b) Seeking Alpha is a joke when it comes to investing advice. They basically let anyone write an article pumping a stock they own

[RedShoulder]

'Anavex Alzheimer's And Parkinson's Drug Underappreciated By Investors' ... thanks for the summary bas; I thought this point was laid out well. I'll go with Dr Jin looking at the data over any contradictory poster which doesn't have Dr Jin's skills, and not having the data that he has at his disposal and purview.

"The September press release declaring again the AD trial a "success" was published six months after the hiring of Dr. Jin, so if there is any question about the veracity of the "successful" Phase 2b/3 trial, it is on Dr. Jin's name. And it is up to you, the individual investor, to decide whether you trust Dr. Jin or if you trust certain writers who claimed that Anavex could not even subtract numbers accurately.

My hunch is that Dr. Jin will not risk his reputation by writing a press release that does not meet strict statistical standards. So when Anavex says that a p<.025 on both the ADAS-Cog and the CDR-SB combined with statistically significant findings in two important biomarkers spells a successful trial, I expect it to be true."