Replies to post #774166 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Louie_Louie]

If the government wants investors to have faith in capitalism, they will do not only what they think is required but what is right and just, even if it hurts a few previous politicians reputations. Pissing off untold numbers of investors and telling them the banana republic is in charge of their market, is a sure fired way to really mess things up. Is the government that desparate and willing to risk faith in capitalist markets for more theft?

[Mr Michael]

Way to go Louie!
You are spot on!

Thank you…
Michael

[RickNagra]

Oh wow. Congratulations on a great post. I will now nominate you for a yellow sticky. The yellow sticky is a status symbol because it will make you feel better. There is no monetary compensation. Not even a single penny. Nadda nothing big fat zero the zilch the big O the big doughnut the big Ferris Wheel the big Uniroyal tire on I-94 in Detroit.

Just watch when someone who matters announces a REAL release. Not the clowns supposing on here or saying they have inside info. The commons will jump like popcorn for days upon a REAL release announcement by a definite date. The JPS...., not so much. Their value is tied to dividends, those dividends will no doubt be suspended still, at release. Especially if any consent decree is done where they allow release with what they deem as a minimum capital requirement, which we all know is major BS because: stress tests have proven they are capitalized solid, right now. The only thing in the way is the governments cement shoes they affixed to the GSE's with warrants and senior liquidation pref BS. But everyone knows those cement shoes are a huge fraud, so they need to do the right thing. Many will be watching at the point a release is done. Many will hold their hand to see if government does the right thing. Why? Because if they don't, there is a very real risk much bigger than the mortgage market or the banks, and that is government getting its grubby hands on investors money again, by pulling this conservatorship crap again in the future. So, many will be watching to see how this gets handled. If not done right, then maybe the government might get stuck with the GSE's forever because the governments crooked eposure makes them far to risky and uninvestable.

A release announcement made with some other positive news, like capitalized enough, write down of all or most of the seniors, or cancellation of the warrants, are all of the above, and the price on the commons after a week or two is anyone's guess! Mr. Markets participants won't be chasing a prefferred share, because those who do chase pref shares, know nothing is changed until their dividend gets reinstated. There won't be any dividends for any share class for awhile after release. There's not going to be any conversion or cram down. We will release as we were fraudulently put in. JMHO.

[bradford86]

The counterargument to your perspective is tha the companies are being overcapitalized and the investors who will be buying restructured common will see that the risk of ever being put into conservatorship with overcapitalized amounts of capital is 0 — they didnt need conservatorship in 2008 when they had less than half as much capital as they do now and made half as much money as they do now. And they still are not capitalized. When they are — the risk of conservatorship will be zero

[Donotunderstand]

of all the matters discussed - the big one by miles and miles is the potential "write down .. of the seniors"

IMO - for common shares that is the only thing that matters

no write down and one should IMO (an opinion) expect some sort of conversion of that 100B (120B?) for FNMA to come crashing down on the current 500Mn value of common.

WTs would dilute us -- but if the GOV owns 4B shares it will want the highest possible PPS for its 4B shares and we ride along

not any sort of prediction - but IMO (I know a lonely opinion) WT use by GOV - with GOV trying to maximize the value (PPS) of those 4Billion plus shares is GOOD for us 1B . Both THEIR 4B and our 1B need for the seniors to be "gone"

[kthomp19]

The commons will jump like popcorn for days upon a REAL release announcement by a definite date. The JPS...., not so much. Their value is tied to dividends, those dividends will no doubt be suspended still, at release.

You have said over and over again that nothing in the future can be predicted, none of us has a crystal ball, etc. You making any sort of predictions about the future is therefore utterly hypocritical.

Especially if any consent decree is done where they allow release with what they deem as a minimum capital requirement, which we all know is major BS because: stress tests have proven they are capitalized solid, right now.

FnF's regulatory capital requirements have nothing to do with the stress tests. By law, FnF are undercapitalized by hundreds of billions of dollars right now.

There won't be any dividends for any share class for awhile after release. There's not going to be any conversion or cram down.

Your Dear Santa wish list is even worse than Bryndon Fisher's because at least he gave some actual numbers.