Just watch when someone who matters announces a REAL release. Not the clowns supposing on here or saying they have inside info. The commons will jump like popcorn for days upon a REAL release announcement by a definite date. The JPS...., not so much. Their value is tied to dividends, those dividends will no doubt be suspended still, at release. Especially if any consent decree is done where they allow release with what they deem as a minimum capital requirement, which we all know is major BS because: stress tests have proven they are capitalized solid, right now. The only thing in the way is the governments cement shoes they affixed to the GSE's with warrants and senior liquidation pref BS. But everyone knows those cement shoes are a huge fraud, so they need to do the right thing. Many will be watching at the point a release is done. Many will hold their hand to see if government does the right thing. Why? Because if they don't, there is a very real risk much bigger than the mortgage market or the banks, and that is government getting its grubby hands on investors money again, by pulling this conservatorship crap again in the future. So, many will be watching to see how this gets handled. If not done right, then maybe the government might get stuck with the GSE's forever because the governments crooked eposure makes them far to risky and uninvestable.
A release announcement made with some other positive news, like capitalized enough, write down of all or most of the seniors, or cancellation of the warrants, are all of the above, and the price on the commons after a week or two is anyone's guess! Mr. Markets participants won't be chasing a prefferred share, because those who do chase pref shares, know nothing is changed until their dividend gets reinstated. There won't be any dividends for any share class for awhile after release. There's not going to be any conversion or cram down. We will release as we were fraudulently put in. JMHO.
“If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.” “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.”
