that's the best mantra in general. "the market can be wrong longer than you can remain solvent," are words to trade by.
straddles make sense. i tend to do strangles opening legs when rallies or plunges seem to stall. def best to play both ways and be open to any direction. 💪
re: 2pm, i watch for the post-fomc headfake which almost always goes in the "wrong" direction (opposite the actual move into close) because they can...