Replies to post #773034 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[trunkmonk]

Really, how are they cheap, please explain? Never mind, I already know. In every market, no exceptions, they follow common share pricing, their only value is if receivership occurs or they get dividends, neither occur with GSEs. Completely flawed analysis.

[Louie_Louie]

It's great you're seeing the light instead of spouting conspiracy theories and parroting GB!
You and Kthompson have the same view, you each think you're correct and everyone else is wrong.
I am with most here saying....no one knows for sure. Shoot the dice, hope for the best, but realize, you are dealing with a sigular unique situation being controlled by a bunch of self absorbed, get rich any which way you can, politicians. When you realize these simple facts, life becomes easier. ALL shareholders are in the same boat until THE GOVERNMENT says otherwise.
If you know differently, then please provide us solid evidence. Not from your own opinion, or GB's opinion, or Kthompson opinion/obfuscation/cerry picking clauses and leaving out context. Provide solid proof, right now, from a government official who counts, that says JPS will crush commons and embarass government or come out smelling like a rose on this.

Remember...you are dealing with a unique, one of a kind 15 year fraudulent conservatorship that nemerous administrations decided to keep their hands off of as far as release. Those thinking capital stacks matters are in for a naivety arse whipping from the thieves in charge of the bank. (Same as foxes and hen houses)

We only have hope in a very few honest judges, politicians and rule of law. Numerous big names who used to be vocal and advocates on this have been silenced. Media is useless on this 85% government fed or controlled.

[Wise Man]

"The JPS are mispriced (way too cheap),"

but not due to the reasons that you think, claiming that in a cramdown scenario the JPS are valued at par value. In that case, they are worthless with today's Net Worth of $118B, but $311B SPS outstanding.
Only if the business goes on, they are undervalued today in the scenario of Govt theft story of the conspirators.
For instance, the $25 par value JPS series of Fannie Mae FNMAS is trading at 9% of par value ($2.16), when its fair value today is 39% of par value ($10), discounting 16 years to resume the dividend payments (Table 8: Payout ratio. >25% of Prescribed Capital Buffer) with the current adjusted capital metrics posted in their ERCF tables, which is when the fair value fetches the par value. So, like any zero coupon fixed-income security, they are trading at a discount to par value. I've considered a 6% discount rate.
But, this fair value will always be 39% of par value, because with the SPS increased for free every quarter, there will always be 16 years left to meet the capital requirements or this threshold of dividend resumption (Groundhog day every quarterly report), as these gifted SPS carry an offset that reduces the Retained Earnings just built (concealed with Financial Statement fraud in FnF: the gifted SPS and their offset are missing on the balance sheets)
So, FNMAS will always trade undervalued.
BACK TO THE FUTURE
Your gang wants to take us back to 2008, when the Fair Value of FNMAS was also $10, as we see in the image that represents the Separate Account plan according to the law that states that Fannie Mae has been repaying the SPS and recapitalizing through today, the threshold for resumption of dividend payments was met with the 3Q2022 earnings report.
It coincides with the image of a normal Conservatorship in cogressionally-chartered private corporations, because it brings to the surface the separate account.

That is, the gang wants now a Receivership, because that's the option that they would have wanted in 2008, instead of Conservatorship.
Sorry, but we are 15 years into a Conservatorship, you can't undo what's already been done and the time for release has come.
Even FnF can redeem the JPS and remain Adequately Capitalized with a CET1 > 2.5% of Adjusted Total Assets as of September 2023, under the Separate Account plan.
So, you are throwing stones at your own roof in an attempt to rip off the shareholders and for stock price manipulation, following orders from renowned hedge fund managers, Glen Bradford "the hippie".
You have caused us harm (spread Fair Value vs Market Price, seen in the image) and, because you have written SA articles (formal document) with the Govt theft story, now you have to pay us punitive damages.