Thanks and the same to you. My daughter is fine and I guess we'll never know if it was vaccine related or not. I'm quite sure some people died from the vaccine but I'm guessing more people died from being unvaccinated.
Overreaction, or prudently rapid rollout? Remember the context, a full year of Covid deaths by the time the Covid vaxxes were rolled out with American deaths approximating in one year the 600K lost in 4 years of civil war.
Deaths and Hospitalizations Averted by Rapid U.S. Vaccination Rollout
The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed devastating health and economic crises worldwide, causing more than 3.9 million deaths and 183 million reported infections globally.1 While the United States has accounted for more than 600,000 deaths, it also has supported the development of highly efficacious vaccines, granting emergency authorizations and delivering the products at an unprecedented pace. As of July 2, the U.S. had administered more than 328 million vaccine doses, with 67 percent of adults having received at least one dose.2,3 The number of cases has fallen from more than 300,000 per day at the apex of the pandemic in January 2021 to less than 20,000 per day in mid-June.
The precipitous decline in U.S. cases is especially impressive as more transmissible variants have emerged in recent months, including the B.1.1.7 (Alpha), P.1 (Gamma), and B.1.617.2 (Delta) variants. The Alpha variant, first identified in the United Kingdom, is 50 percent more contagious than the original COVID-19 variant,4 with higher mortality risk.5 The Gamma variant, initially detected in Brazil and imported to the U.S. in January 2021, became one of the dominant variants by mid-May.6 Ominously, the Delta variant, linked to a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in India, Nepal, and other southeast Asian countries, is threatening to shift the course of the pandemic in the U.S.
With an even higher transmissibility than the Alpha variant,7 the Delta variant currently accounts for more than 40 percent of positive tests and is already establishing dominance in some U.S. states.2,6
The efficacy and safety of authorized vaccines against the original viral variant are well established based on randomized controlled trials showing that they prevent symptomatic and severe disease.8–10 However, the effectiveness of the U.S. vaccination campaign in reducing COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the face of emerging highly transmissible variants has not yet been fully evaluated.
To assess the impact of the U.S. vaccination program, we expanded our age-stratified, agent-based model of COVID-19 to include transmission dynamics of the Alpha, Gamma, and Delta variants in addition to the original Wuhan-1 variant.11 (For details, see How We Conducted This Study). Briefly, the model compared the observed epidemiologic trajectory (cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) to two counterfactual scenarios, one in which no vaccination program occurred and another under which daily vaccinations were administered at only half the actual daily pace.
Highlights Without a vaccination program, by the end of June 2021 there would have been approximately 279,000 additional deaths and up to 1.25 million additional hospitalizations.
If the U.S. had achieved only half the actual pace of vaccination, there would have been nearly 121,000 additional deaths and more than 450,000 additional hospitalizations.
If there had been no vaccination program, daily deaths from COVID-19 potentially would have jumped to nearly 4,500 deaths per day during a second “2021 spring surge” — eclipsing the observed daily peak of 4,000 during the first 2021 winter surge.
Estimated U.S. seven-day rolling average of daily deaths with and without vaccination
The vaccination campaign markedly curbed the U.S. pandemic. If there had been no COVID-19 vaccination program, daily deaths from COVID-19 would have created a second wave (a “spring surge”) — of nearly 4,500 deaths per day — potentially larger than the first wave of the year, which peaked at 4,000 deaths per day in January. Most of the additional deaths during the second 2021 wave (the shaded area of the exhibit here) would have occurred because of an increase and spread of the more transmissible Alpha variant.
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