Where from recent 9.80 euphoria, more distant $12-13, mid term $15-18, or $30+ would you designate acceptable sell points into gloom and doom? Where below 7 would you consider acceptable to buy while not trying to call a bottom? Were there valid points in previous ranges to purchase and sell?
Models are only as successful as the eventual historical data.
There are companies that you should sell as they decline. I can think of some that we have all seen pumped over the years - companies that really have no "there" there. AVXL is clearly not one of those companies. Every one of their clinical trials shows meaningful clinical efficacy, large effect sizes, and tremendous consistency in response. Anavex clinical trials don't require data mining or careful cherry picking of patients for its trials - 2-73 works and works really well.
This will have a happy ending. I think most of us know this and are unworried about current share price.