I see little likelihood of AA for A273 based on the current small 2b/3. Still a chance for traditional approval or AA after the next trial if more successful. Wall street obviously agrees given the 700MM MC. I don't see why Missling was not just honest last December and admit that the 2b hit some endpoints and had a trend for others - enough data to proceed to a 3. There's nothing wrong with going from phase 2b to 3 without implying shortcuts. I'm surprised that Missling has not started a phase 3 with CDR-SB as the endpoint. Perhaps the whole proper dose issue is a bigger problem in old people. I think he's waiting for Rett to finally release the full topline data, hoping a Rett win will blunt the 2b tie.. I've kept a small position for the Rett readout. The phase 3 AD readout won't be until 2026 or 2027 at this rate.
I know you are a SAVA fan. I think simufilam/SAVA remains high risk. However, I like that they have an SPA with the FDA and have designed two phase 3 trials that will be sufficient for standard approval IF results are good. I hope Missling can pin the FDA down and agree to an SPA. I have done a lot of trades in/out but only hold a few hundred shares and they are covered for another couple weeks. I also have a bunch of short puts at $20 so may own more shares soon.
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