The share price reflects Missling's decision to not use standard Wall street financing. If there were several large brokerage houses trying to sell shares there would be a lot of brokers busy pushing the stock.
We don't have that. Then there is the fact that Anavex is a completely novel MOA approach to CNS disease. It remains unproven in the eyes of many biotech investors and will remain so until an NDA is approved.
Add to that the failure rate for AD drugs, CNS drugs in general and you have a lower share price than what the current company progress might suggest.
This is a tipping point stock. Once the data, NDA, trial results pass the tipping point indicating that MOA is valid and the drug will be on the market, the share price will make up for its long depressed state.
I think Missling understands that which is why he mentioned wanting to surprise the market.
I look at AVXL as a coiled spring and when it is released it will rise with a lot of force.
Personally I don't think the short position is large enough to create a huge short squeeze. My thinking is the institutional buying will be much larger than the the shorts covering. That is not to say that the shorts covering won't be part of the pressure that increases the share price, but rather is will get swamped by the insty buying. Of course the shorts will feel some pain, hopefully a lot of pain but in the large scheme of things that won't be what drives the share price.
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