Replies to post #620522 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[StonkMaster]

Thank you Thermo.

[Doc logic]

thermo,

Thanks for sharing your take on the 10Q. Especially looking forward to what NWBO is able to share on the manufacturing end when they can as that is one of the key pieces to determining future value with scale up and meeting patient demand. Best wishes.

[meirluc]

Excellent analysis Thermo but I do have questions pertaining to the your last sentence which reads:

[quoteNorthwest Biotherapeutics Inc. v. Canaccord, et al. is going better than I would have expected. It’s possible the company will receive a large settlement that will minimize dilution][/quote]

1. What makes you believe that the Canaccord et al. law suit is going better than you had expected? Do you have some information or analysis that you are able to share?

2. I was hoping that winning the suit would gross no less than $500M with about let's say $325M (65%) being retained by NWBO and about $175M (35%) going to Cohen-Milstein (if the lawsuit gains are contingency based). A lawsuit gain for NWBO of about $325M or even considerably less should not only minimize dilution but postpone the need to do so for a very long time IMHO.

Are you then perhaps of the opinion that the lawsuit verdict will result in a much more modest gain for the company that may still require some additional dilution(s) within the next few years?

[learningcurve2020]

Thanks. Definitely a Glass half full outlook. Here's the glass half empty:


They never offer anything up so why this and why now without connecting directly to submission of Plll or approval? Likely it's their way of saying the Plll won't be approved without further trials.

>>“The Company is in active discussions in regard to certain combination treatment regimens, and is planning for certain strategic trials with such combination treatments.” [1] Not one, but multiple combo trials. The company’s willingness to put this in their Q means discussions are advanced. My view is that successful combos can get NW to a $10B+ valuation.

Near as I can tell this only means anything to Advent and Powers...and maybe Huawei?? Still not a dime of revs in cryo after all this time.

>>“…buildout of Phase 1B of the Sawston facility, which had been underway since last year, has been completed.” [1] Revenue ramp post approval requires capacity. Confidence.

I'm skeptical given the tech was bought for just a few million without even Corning taking a piece of the action. Murthy went the way of Captain Tuttle...I mean Duffy.

>>“Flaskworks, is continuing its development work to optimize a system for closed and automated manufacturing of DCVax-L products, including optimizing yields. The Company views this as a centerpiece of efforts toward scale-up for potential commercial operations.” [1] NW strategic value is driven by two factors. One, the possible use in combination settings, and the associated franchise value enhancement to existing big pharma therapies. Two, the ability to scale significantly and economically. The use of the phrase “optimizing yields” indicates to me that NW has made substantial progress in this important area.


This is what I said about Novo this morning.

>>“Company presented substantial information from analyses conducted by independent experts on the underlying biology and mechanism of action …. The Company is pursuing further analyses by independent experts, and plans to present further information at an appropriate future conference.” [1] Understanding why a therapy works is as important as trial results showing effectiveness. I’m very interested in what further analyses will be presented.


Doubtful? I'm nearly certain. They'd be parading them around. Plus they could've gone on to other therapies and what then?

>>"The Company and the CRO continue to conduct long-term follow-up in connection with the Phase III trial of DCVax-L, as there are still patients alive." [1] Wish I knew how many are still alive but doubtful that they would write this if it were just a few. Minimum 8-year long tail given last enrollment was in 2015.

Legacy shareholders are down 99%. Shares outstanding went from 100mn to 1.5b. They've run just one Plll trial in all these years with a near five year hiatus of sorts (except for building private CDMO's). They're always broke.

All I ever read is the same 40,000 shareholders of record. Never a majority owner. Never anyone interested in a board seat.

>>The company continues to creatively finance. Finding hundreds of millions of dollars to finance clinical trials is incredibly difficult and the NW team is among the best I’ve seen. It’s a long road yet the base of company supporters (count me among them) -- willing to invest additional funds -- has grown over time. Very good sign.


I've been wondering about this, Thermo. I'm amazed they don't have to tell us what that event / stream is?? IP related perhaps?

“We received $4.1 million from issuance of non-dilutive funding agreements during the six months ended June 30, 2023.” [2] “These agreements are accounted for under ASC 470 and are recognized as contingent payment obligations on the Company’s condensed consolidated balance sheet. The Company’s payment obligations only apply when such are received by the Company.” [3] Ergo: These are not convertible into shares (e.g., non-dilutive). Rather they are a derivative of some other economic event or cash flow stream. This minimizes shareholder dilution and better manages the company’s cash flow.


Why do you say that?

>>Northwest Biotherapeutics Inc. v. Canaccord, et al. is going better than I would have expected. It’s possible the company will receive a large settlement that will minimize dilution.

[aperture007]

Thermo nice summary!

I've been a NWBO long for many years. Looking forward to the big payout that's coming.

[vator]

Thanks for the summary.

[DrHigh]

thank you!

[Dan88]

All good words, and a good summary/analysis of the 2nd Q.

As a side note, I have long been puzzled on the lack of open market buys from the usual big NWBio supporters, like yourself, BiggerC, etc., albeit yours continued support to the company with other financial means. Honestly, I don't care much as I have always has strong belief the company will be successful in securing RA approvals, not only for GBM indication in the near future, but for other indications down the road.

Currently, the price is so low compared to the potential which will be realized within months. If a few million of dollars are in the line for open market purchase, I believe the price will be up significantly and hold, considering MAA submission is within hand's reach, and then RA approval in months. As price rises due to open market purchase, more cash from other sources (likely retails) will follow, making the trend irreversible.

If after all the above, the price still goes unchanged or even lower, then our suit against the 7 MMs will become even more meaningful, rewarding as there will be no other explanations except blatant market manipulation which will be easy to catch.

I know more or less you guys have bought some in open market, as BiggerC has occasionally stated on X, but nothing can be deemed as substantial I believe.

If I have 30-50 million of shares in the line, in current situation, I would swarm the open market with cash.

Appreciated your continued support.