Replies to post #28277 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[santafe2]

I've always used the Baltic Dry Index, ($BDI), as a measure for ocean transport cost. BDI indicates that the most recent low was earlier this year. Also, we should remember that 23 months ago, (as mentioned in the article), retailers in the US were paying whatever they had to, including airfreight, to stock shelves. Ever since then many have been trying to move unsold product.

I don't disagree that the world economy is slowing but reviewing BDI doesn't reveal anything severe unless you're in the shipping business. As a business owner who has moved hundreds of containers from Asia to the US, it looks like good news to me. Below is a 20 year chart of BDI.

[Florence54]

The ocean freight industry is experiencing a significant decline in long-term rates, with a 50% drop in key pricing benchmarks over the past three months, according to Xeneta. This decline, coupled with weak demand, macroeconomic uncertainty, and excess capacity, poses challenges for the industry, making it unlikely for a turnaround in the near future.