Replies to post #420884 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[WilliamMunny]

I agree, crescent, that the market share assumption in his model seems way too low. The community of Rett parents is small, relatively well informed, and relatively well connected, and Trofinetide (Daybue) has nasty side effects that should allow Blarcamesine to be the dominant drug of choice. Furthermore, Dr. Missling ought to give back his MBA if he can't generate a higher post tax profit margin than 20%, given the projected price of the drug compared to the very modest cost of producing it (not to mention the company's existing tax loss carryforwards).

[Gator328]

I'm assuming a conservative year 1 target of 1000 treated patients with a focus on the US market.

Not everyone can afford a $500k/year treatment and insurance companies will eventually cover it but they won't do so without a lot of nudging. It's not good for their business model to pay out billions of dollars for new treatments.

Perhaps the greatest misconception on this message board is that there will be immediate and unlimited demand the moment Blarcamesine becomes available, and more importantly, that insurance companies will gladly pay for all of this demand.

Hint: they won't.

[Hoskuld]

Assuming $500m run-rate after a year seems conservative. Hopefully it will be a $1b run rate - but nothing wrong with assuming a lower number. Assuming there is insurance coverage, I would think Anavex 2-73 would capture the majority of Rett patients. That is a pretty big number - but we can't assume that big number until we get a few quarters of uptake info...IMO.