I'm in the one more down cycle camp. There's too much upcoming pressure on consumers which will likely lead to lower earnings. One of our kids bought a home this year. As we did in 1980 with our first home; they've stopped going out to restaurants, the vacation this summer will be working on the house and while Ikea may get some business there won't be much in the way of extra purchases. Other millennials will be busy paying back student loans.
On the bright side, oil is still in backwardation but that may just be because the industry sees a downturn coming.
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