Replies to post #106298 on Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[Elroy Jetson]

The US had imposed import tariffs on crude oil since 1959 keeping domestic production inflated until mid-1972 when a court ruled Nixon could rescind this and he then also relaxed import quotas on gasoline and heating oil imports December of 1972.

The addition of US demand to the global market provided OPEC with some serious unexpected price control.

In turn this prompted the creation of a lot of new oil supply in Alaska, the North Sea and Mexico. The Trans-Alaska pipeline delivered the first product in Summer 1977 and production from the North Sea from the UK and Norway began hefty volume in 1977, quintupling by 1984.



We also likely recall a multi-theater global war on terror burning up a lot of fuel starting in 2002 which was accompanied by a champion-sized increase in real estate debt in the US and among all other participants globally to create tax revenues to pay for this spectacular largesse, until it all collapsed by 2008. Oil prices roiled higher on the wave of money and collapsed along with the decline in global real estate owner free cash flow.

The recent covid pandemic merely created temporary supply and demand mismatches - nothing long lasting.

[Elroy Jetson]

After 1974 "the new oil supplied" cost somewhat more than oil which had preceded it. Let's say $50 rather than $20.

This was a combination of slightly more costly oil and also increasing expense for refineries which could process heavy oil and high sulfur oil.



This oil price increase does not translate into a 2.5 fold increase in finished product price, but rather far less than that.

In fact it's a long term price decline as mammoth crude refineries have replaced refineries less than 10% of their size and economies of scale have worked through the rest of the business as well.

Let's say inflation adjusted retail gasoline has risen from $2.25 a gallon to $3.25

[dexprs]

Oh yes, I recall filling my Fury with gas for less than 18 cents a gallon many times.