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santafe2

06/01/23 1:54 PM

#106260 RE: gfp927z #106258

It's likely bank specific and really depends on their portfolio. Same is true for insurance companies who've done a lot of commercial lending. The key for banks at this point is to do more high yield lending but many/most have tightened lending policies. I don't see this issue or the student loan issue or continuing high rates as a crisis but the combination of issues will surely slow the economy. Between student loans and revolving debt, Americans now have almost exactly $3T in debt for "stuff" many probably wish they hadn't bought.

Elroy Jetson

06/01/23 2:08 PM

#106261 RE: gfp927z #106258

Bank problems caused by commercial property loans will depend heavily on the bank's lending practices.

Traditional bank lending will offer a loan up to 75% of the value of a property, more often only 65%. In this situation when a building loses significant value, and the building owner is out of equity and stops loan payments, the bank is rarely underwater by very much. Real bad news for the property owner though.

Smaller regional banks became far more aggressive with "mezzanine loans" which are sort of like a second mortgage with higher interest rates and are frequently used when commercial properties are being built. These bank portfolios may be blandly called commercial property loans but they're obviously more likely to suffer major losses.

Banks heavily involved in this business model locally in Los Angeles are First Republic Bank, which has already failed and City National Bank which I assume would have also failed by now had they not sold themselves to Royal Bank of Canada in 2015.

Almost every major commercial or multi-family project I thought was too risky was festooned with the "Blue Ladder" logos of City National Bank.