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boi568

05/29/23 7:45 AM

#417172 RE: BAR123 #417170

Assuming Anavex has the biomarkers for AD, the FDA would use that to grant AA. If there is also clinical effect, that will give Anavex the opportunity for a traditional approval process, as well. (I think having both, in practice, would strengthen either NDA choice that Missling may make.)

For AA, there is no need for Anavex to perform better on the biomarkers than Biogen or Lilly -- which is a good thing, obviously, especially considering how well Leqembi removes amyloid plaque. This is not the same as an efficacy determination, where an SOC can change for the better. Once established, biomarkers do not change.

You call it weird, I call it cynical and ironic -- because, in the end, despite what the FDA believes, these biomarkers are not good ones; they aren't really predictive of efficacy in improving (or even establishing) Alzheimer's. And in the end, of course, with an accelerated approval Anavex will eventually have to demonstrate better-than-SOC efficacy in another trial in order to receive a permanent approval. That day of reckoning is merely delayed. So it will be meaningful to show blarcamesine has the best clinical effect.

Even for a biomarker process, the FDA has to conduct its statutory risk/benefit analysis and it is therefore a great help, for the accelerated approval process, that blarcamesine appears to be so safe. If anything, people here are still underrating this advantage. I think the convenience of a daily Anavex pill also adds to that benefit.

Reyeton

05/29/23 7:53 AM

#417173 RE: BAR123 #417170

What is beyond weird is biogen's past halting of aducanomab's (sp?) trial, then changing endpoints to reducing amyloid plaque and the FDA approval being based on that alone without consideration of the drug's efficacy.

powerwalker

05/29/23 8:43 AM

#417176 RE: BAR123 #417170

Blar, the operative word is "accelerated." Going for the full approval will take longer while AA approach is more focus on a limited number of measurements, i.e., biomarkers. The scope of the AA filing might be XX% less than the full approval filing plus less time to file. Anavex believes that it has a good chance for AA based on the fda's decisions on B&E and Lilly. Those precedents might make it easier for the fda to give AA versus a full approval on a new MOA by an unheard of tiny company (regardless of the results).

This might be too simple, but it makes sense to follow the path that has already been cleared.
Bullish
Bullish