Replies to post #417088 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Joseph_K]

I'm not sure I understand your reply. The screening done by Biogen and Lilly won't limit their market? The screening done by Anavex to date doesn't seem like anything that would restrict who could use blarcamesine; but the "at least so far" makes me wonder if eliminating the non-wild-type Sigma receptor gene population from the trial would take them out of Anavex's market. It seems to me it should.

BTW, Boi has pointed out previously that the original US market for everybody's drugs so far will be a lot less than the 6+ million since the drugs can help only patients in an early stage of Alzheimer's, which is a lot less than half. However, if Anavex 2-73 gets approved, many of those original patients should live longer lives, during which they'll continue taking 2-73. On top of that cohort will be additional patients every year newly suffering from Alzheimer's, so the pool would keep growing. And then there's the possibility of blarcamesine for prophylactic use ...

[Bourbon_on_my_cornflakes]

there was no such screening limit for whom the drug was approved, at least so far. ... he commented on his observation that the mabs were only relevant to 20% of the AD market (of 6.5 million, as I remember). I think this issue will be brought up when Anavex goes to the FDA for approval.

yes this was interesting. basically saying the mABs are only getting a small piece of the market while 273 is essentially an option for the entire alz market. Which of course is another reason for Accelerated Approval