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Replies to post #50922 on Market Direction and Stock Trends
06/03/23 9:09 AM
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Tue. May 7, 2024. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been in a bearish trend since the high moving into the low in 2022 for a declining trend during that year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 1270974.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 29th at 1325621, which was up 11 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 13th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 1325621 to 1288937. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 29th reaching 1325621 has exceeded the previous high of 1224543 made back during the week of April 17th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 11 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in a bullish phase for the past 7 months since the low established back in October 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 1239704 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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