Market Direction and Stock Trends

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NASDAQ Composite Index (COMP) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | May 27, 2023

The NASDAQ Composite Index Cash has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high quite significantly by 1.87%. The broader rally has unfolded over the past 43 days. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 3.14% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 1329494, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 1305799 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 1272974 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place.

Interestingly, this market is breaking through the top of the trading envelope suggesting that it is making an attempt to test overhead resistance. We have projected pivot support forming at 1273640 while projected resistance stands at 1308329 and 1330023.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during March. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. Our next ECM target remains Tue. May 7, 2024. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2009 and 2002. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2007 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash included a rally from 2009 moving into a major high for 2021, the market has been in a bearish trend since the high moving into the low in 2022 for a declining trend during that year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2022. However, the market has been unable to exceed that level intraday since then.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2021. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NASDAQ Composite Index Cash, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 1275623.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 22nd at 1300191, which was up 10 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 13th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 1300191 to 1241585. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of May 22nd reaching 1300191 has exceeded the previous high of 1224543 made back during the week of April 17th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2022. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2021 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

The market is trading sharply some 5.75% percent above the last high 1226955 from which we did originally obtain two sell signals from that event established during February. Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 1020730 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well.

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