"Current" Short avg PPS is about $6 and there are 21 MILLION shares Short now FACT!!! and 44 Days to Cover is INSANE!!!!
Lewrock said, It would be wrong to assume the shorts from $20 are still short. They covered a long time ago. The Finra data shows that approximately 40% of the daily volume over the last 18 months have been short volume (either new short positions or short covering).
The total short position when the stock was $20 was less than 4.5 million. It jumped to 13 million under $10 and then to 20 million under $8. There has been so much churning going on that I would guess that the average short price today is around $6. Looking forward and not backwards, the $6 short breakeven price is what is important.
This could EXPLODE UP and Shorts will be totally HOSED!!
Shorts aren't nervous UNTIL they are!!!! let's review the Shorts "situation",
1) there have been 2 takedowns to $4 and BOTH were on low volume, the Shorts could NOT get a volume capitulation!!!!
2) The fair value for IP and developments to-date BEFORE the mass commercialization begins should be close to $10 PPS currently
3) considering #1 and #2 above, the "juice is no longer worth the squeeze" for Shorts
4) NCREDIBLE "Bull Flag" BULLISH BREAKOUT and timing wise it is PERFECT in coinciding with the ASM this week where investors will be finally getting some details on the commercialization which is now Lebby's focus 100% !!
5) with 21 million shares shorted there is no escape for all the Shorts so the smart ones will begin to try and sneak out without being noticed and the result will be what was described in #4 above
6) the Shorts Days to Cover at 44 Days is INSANE, markets are forward looking and even the Shorts know at this point that " it's REAL and it's HAPPENING", so if PPS begins to spiral upward as smarter Shorts try and sneak out it could get ugly fast for the stoopider Shorts playing a game of "musical shares"!!!
7) As I see it, if Shorts start to Cover it's "game on" and once that spigot gets started there will be NO stopping it!!! These are the scenarios I see
1) Covering BEFORE Licensing & Tech Transfers News would allow for a) 10% to 20% of Shorts to profits b) 10% to 20% of Shorts to break even c) more than 50% of Shorts to lose
2) Covering AFTER Licensing & Tech Transfers News would allow for a) 1% to 2% of Shorts to profits b) 1% to 2% of Shorts to break even c) more than 90% of Shorts to lose
Bottom line, I agree with what Dude said here,
I"m just going to say it - whoever is short this stock is screwed. Completely boned. There is no way to exit this position profitably any longer.
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