McFish, I honestly thought that the stock price was grossly too high last year. During the last year we haven't really learned much more about where they stand in terms of being commercially viable or production capabilities, so from that perspective it's not clear to me that their published progress (longer lasting, more stable and reliable devices, patents, etc..) is of much value. So I think the price probably should be about what it should have been last year, though perhaps a little higher since they at least reported some progress..
That proper price level is subjective but I don't fall into the camp that says they WILL succeed eventually. I believe it is entirely possible that they will not succeed ever. Those that say they will go down with the ship may really lose nearly everything. The problem is the information we have today is so lacking that we can't say there is an 80%, 50%, or 5% chance they will make it. We can't put ANY pct on it with any level of certainty. That current reality makes this a very risky investment, and that's why I believe there is a very high premium that may not be justified on the price even here at $5.
To say that it WILL succeed seems to place a lot of faith in people that haven't yet succeeded no matter how smart they are. A roadmap is no guarantee of success..it's a nice start, but plenty have failed despite the best of intentions and abilities. There are many famous unsolved problems that brilliant people have spent years trying to solve but couldn't.
Until they announce that a foundry is including their technology in the PDK and that end customers are welcome to test completed devices that the foundry has a vested stake in, then they are still a company in the developmental stage.
For me personally, until that happens the price I'd be comfortable with buying and having at least a moderate grip on (no kung fu) is around $2. Others are comfortable with $5, but I'd be willing to bet they think commercialization is right around the corner. That's the difference. Dr Lebby's own projections have been so far off that I don't see a good reason to expect commercialization to be right around the corner. I have little faith in his timeliness even though I do have respect for his expertise in his field.
Two major issues that haven't been answered yet are critical: full wafer poling efficiency and production level ability. So why should anyone think we will see millions of devices or even thousands in 2024 or even 2025? Without that clarity the premium on the stock price IMO should be less than it is. Part of my "agenda" has been to learn and debate. Another part has been to try and clear up the many misconceptions that seem to exist here. Another is occasional entertainment. My monetary agenda is to see a price that I'm comfortable with by helping convince others that the stock really is overpriced as I believe it is by helping discern what the current status of commercialization really is. Nothing wrong with that, and those that simply don't agree with my observations about the company are welcome to simply not agree.
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