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santafe2

05/09/23 3:48 PM

#105934 RE: jbsliverer #105932

Technically speaking you should have a very short leash on a classically downward channel breakout. Price will often follow the upper channel line downward after the breakout. I don't follow CWH but here's my quick take on it.

Over the last two quarters they've made a total of 4 cents a share while disbursing $1.26. Expected earnings for upcoming Q2, always their biggest quarter are 81 cents, down from $2.16 last year and $2.51 the year before. It appears someone is eating their lunch; Dick's Sporting Goods?

It also appears the dividend isn't terribly safe as it was 2X as much in 2020 and 2021 and it was 4X as much in 2022. Maybe a pandemic meme stock? It's been falling since June of 2021. I would listen to the last annual meeting and the first quarter meeting to get a feel for how management is characterizing the issues. During the pandemic we traveled across the country twice to get to our boat. Once in 2020 and once in 2021. Both times we camped all the way. We sure as hell aren't camping now..:)

Another sanity check I use for any stock is price before the pandemic. This was a $13 stock. Fell to $3 and moved up to $34 by August. My take: We weren't the only people camping and avoiding airplanes and hotels.

Wall Street has CWH as a buy, Zacks a hold and Seeking Alpha a strong sell. I didn't look at their debt profile or their cash flow. I would be very cautious with an industry that appears to be consolidating after the camping, RV and boating rush - The how can I enjoy myself without being around other people rush.

My advice more generally, would be to initially put together a spreadsheet of everything you do before you buy a stock. This took me about 15 minutes but it was a no for me after 2-3. It doesn't fit my profile for a SWAN type investment. If I had liked what I saw it would take me the rest of the day to get close to a decision. Now I'm going to have to put this one on my watch list to see if I'm right, LOL! Hope this was helpful.