Replies to post #414547 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Anshu2]

Yes, you need to also consider the probability of that happening. 1%? Well, that’s why it’s in single digits still ..

[Gator328]

The net margins for our sector average closer to 20%-25% and I don't think we'll see 33% market penetration immediately, unless we have the assistance of a partner which your model doesn't account for, either. There's too much competition in the Alzheimer's space and even if the competition has an inferior drug, it'll take some time to overcome their head start -- especially if people are seeing positive results taking the "-mabs."

I agree that using 100mm to account for future dilution is a good idea. But I'd suggest the discount cash flow instead of trying to use P/E to value the company.

[falconer66a]

Bigger, Still....

...to achieve transition to production/distribution) price per share $800.

This eventual AVXL share price is closely in line with what I've calculated on my spreadsheet; using very similar projected data.

But, both of us are way wrong. We are presuming that blarcamesine will be used only as a CNS (Alzheimer's) therapeutic; to treat patients with that disease. That's not how it will work out.

To begin with, for a year or two (maybe less), blarcamesine, far and away, with be the recognized SOC, standard of care drug therapy for Alzheimer's. There will be no competition. The poor performance and side effects of the MABs (monoclonal antibody drugs) will instantly disqualify them. For patients with frank (clearly evident) Alzheimer's, blarcamesine will be the lone drug used to treat these people; soon enough across the developed world.

But presently there is a diversity of new, very accurate tests to diagnose Alzheimer's prodromally, before clear symptoms set in. To save these people and their families (and their health insurance companies) the costs and pains of Alzheimer's, blarcamesine will then be prescribed for prophylactic purposes. With a clear test indication that a person is soon destined to the tragic fate of Alzheimer's, blarcamesine will be prescribed prophylactically; a prevention of the disease. Ponder, then, the size of the combined blarcamesine market, for both the prevention and the successful treatment of Alzheimer's.

[ExtremelyBullishZig]

LOL...yet cassava has a price target of $124 with the same firm rating Anavex at $54...