As it pertains to LWLG, a market report from 2020 estimates 2024 800G transceiver shipments to be 1.5 million, 2025 estimated to be 4 million, 2026 7 million, and well over 10 million by 2030. That's just 800G. 1.6T starts to ramp into the millions of transceivers annually within a few years, too. Dollar amounts are obviously many billions of dollars annually.
Every single transceiver requires modulation of light.
II-VI, Lumentum, and Innolight own a third of the optical transceiver market. Hisense, Accelink, Sumitomo, Cisco, Broadcom, Intel, HG Genuine, NeoPhotonics, Luxshare, and a few others own most of the remaining market.
What LWLG needs to do at the shareholders meeting is detail the latest 2022 market reports and show shareholders the 800G and 1.6T transceiver market. Even better, what % of the transceiver market do they realistically think they can supply modulators for? This isn't revenue guidance. We are not going to get revenue guidance next month and I'm OK with that. This is telling shareholders what the serviceable available market is. There's no excuse to not provide this information.
Other reports and even Lebby say that for 800G and beyond, the optics component of the cost of transceivers could reach up to 80% of the total cost. The next question is what % of the optics cost is the modulator. PhotonicsGuy says easily 15%.
Come on, LWLG. Impress us and listen.
Get rid of the NASDAQ celebration slides. That's old news. Get rid of the We Are Excited slides. That's old news, too. BE TECHNICAL. .
Last, I think shareholders who have Jim Marcelli's ear need to demand he shows a good faith nod to shareholders by NOT doing a cashless exercise of his 100,000, $1 options that expire in a few weeks. If he sells stock to exercise, I'm going to get loud about something.
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