Replies to post #403879 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[TempePhil]

Steady, I think that is 0.5 SD. The threshold on the vertical axis label, refers to the actual threshold for each test type, <=3 next to ADAS-Cog for instance.

The placebo for Emerge declined 5.2 and the Emerge High dose declined 3.78 pts, so setting the threshold at <=3.0 is pretty gratuitous by Biogen. HAHA...setting the threshold 0.78 pts above the reading, in other words the threshold is at 58% of the placebo decline. HAHA
Anavex put the threshold comfortably ABOVE the baseline (at-0.5), to add confidence. NICELY done!!

Remember BIogen ran TWO P3s. Emerge, and Engage were TWO nearly identical P3 trials EACH with about 1600 patients for over 3185 TOTAL!!
The Engage results were swept under the rug, as Engage results were less than half as good as Emerge. Biogen got rid of the extremely smelling c$rap and just kept the bad smelling c$rap!
That is what Adu data is, and why every respectable doctor/hospital rejected it.

[frrol]

You need to review how an OR is calculated, and consider how the placebo arm response affects it. A higher threshold actually 'flatters' a drug response. Consider the math. If you struggle with this, think about what the relative effect is between the placebo and drug arms as a threshold is raised.

[DFRAI]

Because Anavex sought to prove that patients improved on treatment whereas biogen proved a lesser decline than placebo - missling words

Knowing the 30 mg results from previous trial - a reasonable person would determine much better results on 50 dose

So we wait for the reveal.
Is a reveal necessary to invest in Anavex? No. The results are beating biogen as it stands. This is why institutions keep buying shares, while others /retail sells out of fear etc