Replies to post #4881 on E-Wave for the S&P 500 Index

[gdl]

Whatever you do, don't look at the 40 year inflation cycle. Above all else pretend or dismiss the current inflation spike as a fluke and it will revert back to disinflation trend. I also suggest you don't look at the debt structure and what will happen if we do continue to spike higher. in fact Friday was such a dramatic multi-level report it shatters wall streets argument for lower inflation and the need to stop raising rates. What was the FED thinking? I will us your logic. What happens every time inflation cycle resumes? We not only have the tightest labor market on record and the longest, we have a surge back to all time highs in employers begging for workers. Wages are starting to increase and there i no sign it will reverse anytime soon. Inflation by definition happens when wages growth take hold. Friday report for January also included manufacturing data. It also spiked higher and was a shock!

I use Fridays data point as a time bomb that just got started. When the bomb is set for is anyone's guess but it started. Real world bets has to do with projections on earnings. All else is nonsense. What is the earning projected before and after the quarterly earnings that are closing? Not wall streets projections but all major companies in all sectors. Hint: Not good!

Do you know that Buffett uses and acknowledges these cycles. In a debt ridden world inflation is the thousand pound elephant. All else is inconsequential. Watch the dat on inflation. Watch the opening in China. it was just as explosive last month. Combined the 2 largest economies in such a predicament today can only fuel inflation a lot higher. Demand has exploded. Forget supply.

I am actually as shocked about the way we perceived the world around us today as i was the day the Pandemic was announced.

Want real world early TELLS? Look no further than BITCOIN. An absurd concept with no rules and a silly belief it is not being influenced by governments. It too has defied the bear view. The Crypto Trader is pounding the crash warning with 4 distinct divergences. I "HOPE" it leads the parade as a good tell.

[GLENO34]

Thanks RCKS...That is a long story..I will read it later..Thur the day.

[gdl]

As i insisted 14 months ago this is not transitory but a 40 year cycle. Not only will we not see further tempering of inflation we are entering the next round of spike moves. Like the pandemic it wasn't a matter of technical data or any system but common sense. The proof has already been shown in just one days data point. Friday exploded on jobs, 11 million jobs for hire, and manufacturing that went from contraction to expansion in a big way from December to January.

We have never tamed inflation and wage growth in a tight labor market. NEVER! this is economics 101 or perhaps i am missing something. I deal in logic and common sense and when the market ignores both it does so for a short period before it realizes the mistake. The other huge problem is China. The data from them last month was as explosive as ours this month. Their economy is now opened up and they are on a spending spree.

If the above statements are incorrect please refer me to any article that contradicts it. If the stock market and our economy will ignore these factors i presented then i don't understand the basics of how economies work. As for earnings the premise to hold up this market at these levels is that in THREE quarters from now we will see double digit earnings. Nine Months? Really? because if you drop that assumption out we are extremely overvalued here.

I am just presenting a layman's interpretation of why this market is ripe for a crash. If the CPI/PPI for January is also a shocker it is Game Over!

I believe we hit the highs on 2/2/2023. Should know soon if that hold true.