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gdl

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Alias Born 12/18/2012

gdl

Re: RCKS post# 4881

Sunday, 02/05/2023 3:34:54 PM

Sunday, February 05, 2023 3:34:54 PM

Post# of 5601
Whatever you do, don't look at the 40 year inflation cycle. Above all else pretend or dismiss the current inflation spike as a fluke and it will revert back to disinflation trend. I also suggest you don't look at the debt structure and what will happen if we do continue to spike higher. in fact Friday was such a dramatic multi-level report it shatters wall streets argument for lower inflation and the need to stop raising rates. What was the FED thinking? I will us your logic. What happens every time inflation cycle resumes? We not only have the tightest labor market on record and the longest, we have a surge back to all time highs in employers begging for workers. Wages are starting to increase and there i no sign it will reverse anytime soon. Inflation by definition happens when wages growth take hold. Friday report for January also included manufacturing data. It also spiked higher and was a shock!

I use Fridays data point as a time bomb that just got started. When the bomb is set for is anyone's guess but it started. Real world bets has to do with projections on earnings. All else is nonsense. What is the earning projected before and after the quarterly earnings that are closing? Not wall streets projections but all major companies in all sectors. Hint: Not good!

Do you know that Buffett uses and acknowledges these cycles. In a debt ridden world inflation is the thousand pound elephant. All else is inconsequential. Watch the dat on inflation. Watch the opening in China. it was just as explosive last month. Combined the 2 largest economies in such a predicament today can only fuel inflation a lot higher. Demand has exploded. Forget supply.

I am actually as shocked about the way we perceived the world around us today as i was the day the Pandemic was announced.

Want real world early TELLS? Look no further than BITCOIN. An absurd concept with no rules and a silly belief it is not being influenced by governments. It too has defied the bear view. The Crypto Trader is pounding the crash warning with 4 distinct divergences. I "HOPE" it leads the parade as a good tell.
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