Replies to post #399904 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[tke458]

Well said dude. We agree on a bunch. I think AD brings the sense of urgency that management has lacked on several fronts (and a desire to explicitly defend the share price).

I like the probability better with him. The problem is that they didn’t give him a couple of seats so now he goes hard.

[Kycc]

When generics enter the US market the brand usually lose 90% market share within first year. Amarin still holds 60% which is a miracle and entirely due to KM signing deals with insurance.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The above is not right. Amarin holds 50%-60% is a miracle but mainly due to supply constraint. For the almost past 3 years, I have followed up with CCSB, Hikma and Teva's API. They were supposed to have 300 tons/year (roughly 40,000-50,000 scripts/week) in early 2022; but due to Covid, they delayed. Now the status is that their new facility was completed in August 2022 and waits for FDA inspection. Currently they provide 120-150 tons/year to Hikma. You will see Hikma increases scripts gradually these days. Teva will be slow due to FDA but there will be another 150 tons/year erosion sooner or later this year. There won't be 50%-60% share anymore. KM might have tried very hard to sign some exclusive contracts, but do you really think a small company could make the deal? Therefore, definitely current 50%-60% is not due to his achievements.

For those who think Amarin can maintain business this way till Europe, just do simple math. If Teva is fully in the mid of 2023, Amarin will lose another 20,000 to 30,000 scripts/week, the income will decrease to 40-45 million level per quarter. With current expenses/cost (80-90 million/per quarter), they will lose $40-45 million per quarter and their 300 million cash will burn out by 2025 the latest.

For the past 2-3 years, I have contacted Amarin to update CCSB status and asked for solutions if Europe is not as smooth and sales might not catch up fast due to doctor education time, but they never responded or gave vague answer like last recent email I got - they would see how Teva acts for them to react, or they might cut expenses more. They know generics to eat up their business since patent loss for almost 3 years. This kind of attitude is not right for survival game.

[hayward]

Pharmacydude

I don’t see what AD really has to offer besides shareholder representation

COME ON MAN !! you cannot be serious !

Michael

[hypo]

P'Dude, Nice set of summaries. Hypo

[The Canes]

Dr. Denner wasn't trying to rule the roost initially. He respectfully asked for a couple seats on the BOD. Amarin stonewalled him. That's why he's gone all in. Management gave him no alternative. The man has contacts! He's going to line us up with a better future as opposed to a drawn out walk into financial oblivion. Amarin had their chance to treat shareholders with respect and blew it. NO! I'm not giving them a second or third shot at recognizing we exist. If they don’t let me vote electronically, I’ll pay out of pocket to mail the damn proxy to Europe.

[Rob25]

Pharmacydude: Thank you for sharing your perspective which I feel is valuable.
Do you have an opinion on which two or three additional board members should be selected besides, of course, Dr. Denner?
Again, your contributions are very much appreciated!