Replies to post #393701 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[mike_dotcom]

Come on man, a political science major cannot be wrong!

[DoTheRightThing]

So your argument is that fraud can't happen because there would be adverse consequences? If that was true, there would never be fraud. Agree he's not stupid, but that doesn't mean he isn't incompetent in some areas. I don't think I've ever seen a bio have 4 positive topline readouts and still be beaten down this badly. The market is pricing this as if the CEO is lying about the data. That's how bad he's been at communicating / delivering results. The more I think about it the more infuriating this reality becomes...

[boi568]

I agree that it makes no sense for Anavex to make a false and material claim about its trial results. It would not survive for very long, and the consequences to the CEO, personally, and to the company would be disastrous.

That leaves me with the thought that the way Anavex chose the ADCS-ADL endpoint is considered by some to be unconvincing because it is untraditional and not easily understood. The question than becomes, is this Odds Ratio endpoint scientifically unsound for this data set, or are the objections raised that it's problematic based either in bad faith or just ignorance? That's a question the FDA will be able to handle.

My lay intuition is that the data curve will be lumpy -- more Mendel than Gauss -- and that will favor an OR analysis. My professional experience in a federal regulatory agency has me believing strongly that the FDA will look for every reason to approve a safe AD drug with high efficacy for a subset of patients. The FDA enjoys a great deal of discretion.

[Talon38]

MKikesc......I think people fail to digest what the article by Jessica Wong in Forbes is speaking to with reference to Anavex's precision medicine approach to the 2-73 Alzheimer's Trial.

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"The use of AI and machine learning is transforming digital marketing in the same way that biopharma is. Algorithms are driving some of the leading B2C and B2B marketing channels. Data analysis is allowing marketers to make data-driven predictions rather than relying on historic results to make recommendations.

As with biopharma, digital marketing and advertising use data-driven technology. A programmatic advertising campaign, for example, is an effective means of building brand awareness and delivering relevant messaging at the right time. Through AI and machine learning, marketers can build models and personas and optimize campaigns with a wide variety of targeting capabilities that allow them to reach and scale toward niche audiences.

Another example is branding. Audiences associate a brand with tangible and intangible factors. Consistent, authentic branding—including for biopharmaceutical companies—can help build audience trust and establish long-term customer relationships. For instance, the data companies gain from using AI and machine learning for research can strengthen a brand’s credibility.

Plus, by focusing on how these technologies are changing the research process, digital marketers have an opportunity to demystify drug development and remove barriers between patients and biopharmaceutical leaders.

With all that said, we are only at the beginning of implementing AI and ML in both biopharma and digital marketing. As these technologies penetrate both industries further, they will open opportunities for and change the approaches of scientists, manufacturers and communicators alike."

[BIOChecker4]

Missling may have little choice but to stick to his story and hope for the best. If he reveals the full data set and the data are weak, the stock will collapse. I suspect we’ll never see the full AD data set. Instead, at some point soon he’ll move on to the next shiny object and hope people forget about it.