Kindness toward Dr Lebby
This may seem odd coming from me because I challenge others here so much, but maybe it's time to challenge myself more. Some are expressing frustration toward Dr Lebby..stock price and short term expectations aside, even though I question certain things I wince at the targeting of him as being someone who is misleading investors - it doesn't seem fair to me:
WHAT IF the high industry standing of Lightwave believed by longs is true? Even if not, what if very significant revenues are within the company’s grasp and are not a pipe dream? What an achievement it would be to just get to that position! If a few timelines are off, so what? In the big picture almost no one does this, so if that is the reality then Dr Lebby's accomplishments with Lightwave woud be deserving of unlimited respect and admiration.
Many here give Dr Lebby the benefit of the doubt because of his past accomplishments, which really are impressive. His work with Motorola alone appears to have been stellar, having been instrumental with a record number of patents in his field for them. Dr Lebby isn't just a good speaker who knows the industry: He has a long history of innovation and deserves the respect he has within the industry.
SO, what is to be made of what appears to some to be 'missteps' or 'misleading guidance'? My take is that he isn't making promises, but is doing his best to give investors a rough guideline. But this is really complicated stuff. My take throughout the second half was that he was letting us know that not everything was within their control--I saw his comments about the kitchen recipe as a hint re the rate of progress.
My biggest source of frustration hasn't been the timeliness as much as the uncertainty of WHO is taking him seriously. Here I feel he has been very cagey and secretive. That of course raises suspicion with some of us, myself included, but there may well be another explanation besides the uncertainty of things out of his control: He does not want to tip his hat to the COMPETITION as to who he is working with and where he is at in the process. He probably would LOVE to tell us the best news whenever it would happen, but would it be a wise move when competitors can change their own focus in response, and try to catch up as quickly as possible? NO. So, a 'kinder' interpretation of the vagueness of the situation, including what we are seeing in the last month, is that it must be done for the long term benefit of the company. Unfortunately, what keeps competitors in the dark also keeps shareholders in the dark. But, if that's the case - and to me there is a lot of sense to that - this is something we have to give Dr Lebby understanding for.
I'm not turning into a full-blown Lightwaver here, and I am still bearish in the short term due to the increased uncertainty on timing (as I interpret). I still am looking for more signs that something big is coming, and the clues as to how far away it is. I do think the latest suggests it is further away than we had hoped to the point where the stock is at risk - and maybe even too unclear to give trustworthy guideliness. And a recent narrative that where they stand possibly is not as big initially as we hoped may also be the reality - maybe they even will start out very small and require 'winning' over the big boys one device at a time.
BUT - none of this means Dr Lebby is the bad guy who knew all along he wasn't going to tell us X,Y,or Z while leading us to think otherwise. I really think he is trying, and that he has to walk a very tricky line to help convey his excitement to shareholders while not putting the company at risk. We can be frustrated with the share price uncertainty, but maybe it's not at all fair to be frustrated with Dr Lebby, who just may be the next Steve Jobs or Bill Gates.
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