Replies to post #26316 on Cycle Trading

[dealerschool2006]

all I can say is...BRILLIANT!!! Thanx for sharing!!! btw I bookmarked your post...

[No-Quarter]

For some reason, the links to the individual ETF's in my previous post reverted to the default setting. Here they are again but with my settings;

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The ETF's I use for the 3 overall markets are -

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXL&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXS&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TQQQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SQQQ&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TNA&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TZA&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687


The ETF's I use for the 11 SPDR sectors are -

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TECL&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TECS&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CURE&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WANT&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLC&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAZ&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUSL&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VDC&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UTSL&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UYM&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRN&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DRV&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NRGU&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NRGD&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687


I do screw around with a few individual stocks, and other ETF's, NatGas being one. Gold is another -

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPGDM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20416401671

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXU&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXD&p=60&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26753928687

Merry Christmas!

[jaws57]

You keep track of all those charts with a FTJ (job). Dont know how you do it. But Im glad you do. Thanks for all the chart shares! and your add on cartoons. I love them.

[Duma]

I was blown away by your post when I read it. I had no idea you were actually trading the sectors.

I have thought trading sectors was a really good idea for many years. About 3 years ago I tried a scheme, but it did not work out. I was trying to stay fully invested in what ever sectors had buys, but the number of trades to rebalance each time I got a sector buy or sell was creating way too many trades. I had to drop it.

Fast forward to the last couple of years and I have fired all of my financial advisors and started doing all of my own trading. All I was using was SPY and TQQQ. I finally got to a point about 3 months ago that the pressure of making my trades was just getting to be too much. One wrong trade and I missed a big gain or took a huge lose.

So, I decided to start trading the sectors with a much-simplified method from what I tried before. I have been very happy with the results and the pressure of trading is gone. If I make a bad decision, it is only a smaller part of the total and I can easily correct the trade in a day or two if I need to with minimal damage.

I backed test 2021 and 2022 ytd. SPY gain in 2021 was about 28% and my sector trading gained just over 30%. But for 2022 which is now down about -17%, I would have been up 15%. This is perfect. If it is a very good year, this will match the market and if it is a bad year, it will out perform. It doesn’t get any better than that.

This matches my long-term trading goals of matching the market in a good year and not losing money in a bad one.

I my doing all of my trading off of daily charts where I see that you are using 60min charts. That seems like it would way too much trading for me, but maybe not. I will have to spend some time and look into that. How many trades a month are you making?

As you know I did take a renewed interest in your Bullish Percent (BP) charts and I have been tracking the SPX. I will have to take a look at BP for the sector charts. This could make a conformation signal to my trend line trades.

I am just trading the XL etf’s, XLB, XLC, etc. I don’t know about the sector etf’s that you are trading. I will also have to look into to that. But it seems that what I am doing is just as good.

I had just been waiting for the right time to introduce what I was doing to the board, so seeing your post this morning was a real surprise. I love it. Who would have thought.

As of this morning the only sectors that I am still long are XLRE and XLU. Correction on that, XLRE hit my stop this after the open.

I added your post to the stickies !!!!!!!

[Duma]

I love your bold statement. That is exactly how I feel. Well said.

I don't know and I don't care to analyze history.

I don't know and I don't care if the economy is stronger or weaker.

I don't know and I don't care to analyze time periods between cycles.

All I care about is what the market and sector charts are saying to me today.

[Duma]

In all of my large accounts I now trade my Sector strategy which I started back in 4Q. I started adding sectors on Jan 4. By the 11th in was in 9 sectors. Yesterday I added XLP (cons staples) for the first time and have yet to buy into in XLV (healthcare). I am now long in 8 sectors.



In my IRA I trade this strategy only at 110% investment. That means that when I am fully invested, I will be at the equivalent of 110% of my cash. I stared at 24% on Jan 4 and averaged about 85% for most of Jan. I am currently at 87%. XLV is 15.8% of the S&P so that is a good part of what is missing.

The account returned 4.2% for the month vs SPY of 6.3%. This is understood and acceptable because it took a few days into the year to start to get buy signals.

In my IB account I invest at 120% and do a few other things so I yielded 4.8% for the month.

To avoid going on margin I buy all TQQQ or partial when I get a XLK signal. With XLK running about 25% of the S&P, if I buy all TQQQ, I can go to 150% before my cash is all gone.

If I were to get an XLV buy signal this is what I would do in my IB account:
* Near the close or when possible, estimate the value of my account.
* XLV is 15.8% so for IB account I would want to buy 1.2 * 15.8% of the value of the account. After the buy, the account would be holding XLV that has a value of 19% of the account NAV (net asset value).
NOTE: All my signals are EOD and most orders are MOC.

I said in my IRA I would be at 110% of cash invested if I was fully invested. My current holdings are 87% of my NAV which means I still have 23% left in cash. If I used all that cash today I would have no cash and my holdings would be 110% (87%+23%) of NAV. Hope this makes sense.

My stress from trading my accounts is gone. If I make a mistake on one of the sectors, the impact is not so big. I can wait a few days and decide what to do. As I said I bought XLP yday and it is down -1.2% today. Did I make a mistake? I will know in a few days, but for now I am holding, and it doesn’t bother me a bit. I also exited XLE yday and it is down -3.1% today, so good decision there to cut my losses at -4% for the trade which would have been down another 3%.

[desertcynlite]

I want to thank you for taking the time to put all these links together in one spot! A lot of these are ETFs which I trade so, this has proved to be a good reference tool for me. My charts don’t have the Bullish Percentage indicators and I do like to look at them from time to time.