Do you think -- that a buyout is also out of the question? I personally think buyout is very much on the table -- for $1-2B.
One specific example -- I know BMRN bought RNA for $700-800m just on the basis of a questionable DMD trial results and its patents. Eventually, RNA's drug was rejected by FDA, and all BMRN is getting is about 5-7% of SRPT's revenues for some of its initial drugs.
With that in mind, and even otherwise, I strongly feel that AVXL is certainly worth $1-2B for a buyer. But -- that doesn't mean -- a buyout is imminent of even likely (since someone needs to show interest, for whatever reason). But, it's a reasonable possibility and certainly not a bad bargain.
I think a buyout scenario puts in a solid base price for AVXL. I'd say anything less than $500 market cap ($6.5/share) -- is a buy (at this point). Difficult to go wrong in $6-$8 area, unless much worse news (e..g, EXCELLENCE fails) come up.